Grand Prix Final Qualifiers

[skatingguy]

First skaters to clinch spots to the final:

Women
Isabeau Levito

Men
Ilia Malinin

Pairs
Lia Pereira/Trennt Michaud

North America is well represented. What's taking everyone else so long?

 

[Sylvia]

Standings after the first 3 GPs (China, Finland, Japan to go):

Women: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpswomen.htm

Men: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpsmen.htm

Pairs: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpspairs.htm

Ice Dance: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpsdance.htm

 

[skatingguy]

After Cup of China the following skaters have qualified for the Final.

Women:
Isabeau Levito
Loena Hendrickx

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpswomen.htm

Men:
Adam Siao Him Fa
Ilia Malinin

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpsmen.htm

Pairs:
Deanna Stellato-Dudek/Maxime Deschamps
Lia Pereira/Trennt Michaud

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpspairs.htm

Ice Dance:
Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier
Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpsdance.htm

 

[skatingguy]

After Grand Prix Espoo the following skates have qualified for the Grand Prix Final:

Women:
Kaori Sakamoto
Isabeau Levito
Loena Hendrickx
Hana Yoshida

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpswomen.htm

Men:
Adam Siao Him Fa
Ilia Malinin
Kao Miura

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpsmen.htm

Pairs:
Deanna Stellato-Dudek/Maxime Deschamps
Lia Pereira/Trennt Michaud
Sara Conti/Niccolo Macii

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpspairs.htm

Ice Dance:
Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier
Madison Chock/Evan Bates
Laurence Fournier Beaudry/Nikolaj Soerensen
Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpsdance.htm

 

[tony]

The only way Aymoz doesn't qualify is if the podium at NHK is exactly: Britschgi or Egadze for gold, Kagiyama for silver, and Uno for bronze and the latter two beat Kevin in overall two-event score. No other result will do it.

 

[Rukia]

The only way Aymoz doesn't qualify is if the podium at NHK is exactly: Britschgi or Egadze for gold, Kagiyama for silver, and Uno for bronze and the latter two beat Kevin in overall two-event score. No other result will do it.

somewhere a monkey's paw is twitching

 

[Karen-W]

Pairs - totally unpredictable and there are multiple ways for about 5 different teams to qualify for the GPF.

GoluGM - with a win they would move into a tie with HocKun at 24 points and a 1st/4th in the results - tiebreaker would go to total combined score.

BecGuar and LiuNagy - win and they're in, 2nd for either team would move them into a tie with PavSvia at 24 points and a 2nd/3rd in the results - tiebreaker would go to the total combined score.

GhiAmbr - 1st or 2nd gets them to the GPF, 3rd and they're tied with PavSvia (plus potentially BecGuar or LiuNagy) at 24 points and a 2nd/3rd in the results - tiebreaker would go to the total combined score.

HaseVol - land on the podium and the GPF trip is secured, 4th puts them in a tie with HocKun (and potentially GoluGM) at 24 points and 1st/4th in the results - tiebreaker would go to the total combined score.

There are plenty of permutations that could affect who makes the GPF and given that this is Pairs, anything really could happen. HocKun, HaseVol and GhiAmbr are in the best spots to qualify when it's all said and done, but...

 

[Evgeniafan]

somewhere a monkey's paw is twitching

Does 1,4 beat 2,3. Or does the total of the two events have to be the highest score?

 

[tony]

Does 1,4 beat 2,3. Or does the total of the two events have to be the highest score?

Highest individual competition placement is always ranked ahead if there is a tie in points.

 

[Evgeniafan]

Highest individual competition placement is always ranked ahead if there is a tie in points.

I can't see Lukas or Nika's total score topping Kevin's or even Shun's.

 

[tony]

I can't see Lukas or Nika's total score topping Kevin's or even Shun's.

It doesn't matter, as I just explained. If Lukas or Nika wins, they have 24 points and their 1st placement (and 4th) beats 2nd and 3rd. And once again, the only way Kevin is out is exactly one of those two winning, Kagiyama exactly 2nd with a higher two-event score, and Uno exactly 3rd with a higher two-event score.

 

[skatingguy]

Grand Prix Final Scenarios

Women (2 Spots Remaing)

Rion Sumiyoshi - 13+11 = 24
Chaeyeon Kim - 13+9 = 22

Competing at NHK

Nina Pinzarrone = 13
1st = 28 Points = Qualified
2nd = 26 Points = Qualified
3rd = 24 Points, Score > 189.17 = Qualified or Total Score Tiebreaker
4th = 22 Points, Score > 183.77 = Needs Help

Haein Lee = 9
1st = 24 Points = Qualified
2nd = 22 Points, Score > 191.61 = Needs Help

Wakaba Higuchi = 7
1st = 22 Points = Needs Help

Lindsay Thorngren = 7
1st = 22 Points = Needs Help

*Reminder that Mai Mihara is scheduled to compete, and, depending on her ankle injury, could run away with this competition.

 

[skatingguy]

Grand Prix Final Scenarios

Men (3 Spots Remaining)

Kevin Aymoz - 13+11 = 24
Shun Sato - 11+13 = 24
Sota Yamamoto - 15+5 = 20

Competing at NHK

Shoma Uno = 13
1st = 28 Points = Qualified
2nd = 26 Points = Qualified
3rd = 24 Points, Score > 249.14 = Qualified or Total Score Tiebreaker
4th = 22 Points = Needs Help

Yuma Kagiyama = 11
1st = 26 Points = Qualified
2nd = 24 Points, Score > 255.98 = Qualified or Total Score Tiebreaker
3rd = 22 Points = Needs Help

Lukas Britschgi = 9
1st = 24 Points = Qualified
2nd = 22 Points = Needs Help

Nika Egadze = 9
1st = 24 Points = Qualified
2nd = 22 Points = Needs Help

Gabriele Frangipani = 7
1st = 22 Points = Needs Help

Camden Pulkinen = 7
1st = 22 Points = Needs Help

Luc Ecoomides = 5
1st = 20 Points, Score > 273.26 = Needs Help

 

[skatingguy]

Grand Prix Final Scenarios

Pairs (3 Spots Remaining)

Hocke/Kunkel - 15+9 = 24
Pavlova/Sviatchenko - 13+11 = 24
Peng/Wang - 11+9 = 20

Competing at NHK

Hase/Volodin = 15
1st = 30 Points = Qualified
2nd = 28 Points = Qualified
3rd = 26 Points = Qualified
4th = 24 Points, Score > 162.16 = Qualified or Total Score Tiebreaker
5th = 22 Points = Needs Help

Ghilardi/Ambrosini = 13
1st = 28 Points = Qualified
2nd = 26 Points = Qualified
3rd = 24 Points, Score > 182.97 = Needs Help, Total Score Tiebreaker
4th = 22 Points = Needs Help

Beccari/Guarise = 11
1st = 26 Points = Qualified
2nd = 24 Points, Score >192.55 = Needs Help, Total Score Tiebreaker
3rd = 22 Points = Needs Help

Liu/Nagy = 11
1st = 26 Points = Qualified
2nd = 24 Points, Score > 196.31 = Needs Help, Total Score Tiebreaker
3rd = 22 Points = Needs Help

Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore = 9
1st = 24 Points, Score > 175.27 = Qualified, Needs Help or Total Score Tiebreaker
2nd = 22 Points = Needs Help

Laurin/Ethier = 7
1st = 22 Points = Needs Help

 

[skatingguy]

Grand Prix Final Scenarios

Ice Dance (2 Spots Remaining)

Let's be honest. As soon as Lajoie/Lagha finished 2nd at Skate America in the Rhythm Dance the field for the final was set. All that remains is for Guignard/Fabbri & Fear/Gibson to take to the ice and confirm their spots.

 

[skatingguy]

I hope I haven't made any egregious errors in these scenarios.

 

[Karen-W]

I hope I haven't made any egregious errors in these scenarios.

I think the only "error" is that Golubeva/Giotopoulos-Moore could make it with a 1st place, regardless of score, if BecGuar and LiuNagy nab the other podium spots and push GhiAmbr and HaseVol into some combination of 4th & 5th. I don't know how likely that scenario is, but it's pairs, so, yeah...

 

[skatingguy]

I think the only "error" is that Golubeva/Giotopoulos-Moore could make it with a 1st place, regardless of score, if BecGuar and LiuNagy nab the other podium spots and push GhiAmbr and HaseVol into some combination of 4th & 5th. I don't know how likely that scenario is, but it's pairs, so, yeah...

Yeah, that does seem to be a possibility - so Qualified, Needs Help or Total Score Tiebreaker depending on the order of finish behind them.

 

[shan]

I hope I haven't made any egregious errors in these scenarios.

Thanks for doing the calculations!

 

[skatingguy]

Ice Dance Final Standings

1. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier
2. Madison Chock/Evan Bates
3. Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri
4. Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson
5. Laurence Fournier Beaudry/Nikolaj Soerensen
6. Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha

Alternates:
1. Allison Reed/Saulius Ambrulevicius
2. Evgenia Lopareva/Geoffrey Brissaud
3. Juulia Turkkila/Matthias Versluis

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpsdance.htm

 

[skatingguy]

Women Final Standings

1. Kaori Sakamoto
2. Isabeau Levito
3. Loena Hendrickx
4. Hana Yoshida
5. Nina Pinzarrone
6. Rion Sumiyoshi

Alternates:
1. Chaeyeon Kim
2. Lindsay Thorngren
3. Niina Petrokina

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpswomen.htm

 

[skatingguy]

Pairs Final Standings

1. Deanna Stellato-Dudek/Maxime Deschamps
2. Minerva Fabienne Hase/Nikita Volodin
3. Lia Pereira/Trennt Michaud
4. Sara Conti/Niccolo Macii
5. Annika Hocke/Robert Kunkel
6. Rebecca Ghilardi/Filippo Ambrosini

Alternates:
1. Maria Pavlova/Alexei Sviatchenko
2. Lucrezia Beccari/Matteo Guarise
3. Cheng Peng/Lei Wang

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpspairs.htm

 

[skatingguy]

Men Final Standings

1. Adam Siao Him Fa
2. Ilia Malinin
3. Kao Miura
4. Yuma Kagiyama
5. Shoma Uno
6. Kevin Aymoz

Alternates:
1. Shun Sato
2. Sota Yamamoto
3. Lukas Britschgi

https://results.isu.org/events/gp2023/gpsmen.htm

 

[Andrey aka Pushkin]

Men Final Standings

1. Adam Siao Him Fa
2. Ilia Malinin
3. Kao Miura
4. Yuma Kagiyama
5. Shoma Uno
6. Kevin Aymoz

No disrespect to Kevin, but can some find the odd one out?

 

[PRlady]

No disrespect to Kevin, but can some find the odd one out?

Someone has to be last. But men gonna men so who knows.

Apparently if Russians were competing Gumennik would probably have qualified.

 

[airgelaal]

No Korea in the finals. Unexpectedly.

 

[Karen-W]

No Korea in the finals. Unexpectedly.

I was just thinking that earlier this morning. I bet no one had that on their pre-season GPF bingo card.

 

[Colonel Green]

Yes, Korea's Grand Prix season was pretty miserable. They've got a great junior contingent for the Final, at least, but the senior ladies had best sort things out; Jia isn't going to be able to help them with Olympic qualification next year.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I was just thinking that earlier this morning. I bet no one had that on their pre-season GPF bingo card.

I made a comment about a week or two ago that I did not think any in ladies would qualify to the final, but you said that you thought C Kim had a good chance

also, if USFSA had selected Ava for the TBD for skate America, as I was hoping they would she would’ve had to only came in fourth to go to the final

I thought she would’ve been a really great choice

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

two French in men’s, two Belgian in ladies, two Germans in pairs, two Italians in pairs could’ve even been a third one almost and three Canadians in dance, lots of things are interesting