ISU has cancelled 2021 Europeans, ISU Grand Prix Final, World Junior Synchro; Stockholm Worlds still on for now

[tony]

So? You asked about why it mattered when Worlds would be canceled. It wouldn't make a difference to such skaters, but it would to those who do have a chance.

And I'm still asking you why, in the mind of a competitor, it matters that it be canceled 2.5 months early. Why can't they announce in late-February that they are pushing it back? Why can't we just see where the world is at by then? So many people were claiming in May that there would be no figure skating season at all, after all.

 

[MsZem]

I think a decision should be made by mid-January. You should know all you need to know by then. So if the plug needs to be pulled they pull it and let the skaters coach fees and ice time fees go towards practicing and choreographing for the Olympic season. No point wasting February and March practicing the Finnstep when you can put your resources towards whatever the next pattern is.

I'm not seeing the "optimist" part of realistic optimist here. Mid-January is way too early to know what the situation would be like in early spring.

I don't see any reason why Worlds couldn't happen, if not in March, then in April or May. By then the oldest and most vulnerable of the officials, coaches, and potential volunteers would probably have been vaccinated or at least enough of them will be. Also, the horrible surges that we are experiencing now should have died down because people will not be visiting each other for the holidays in spite of orders. And people in the Northern Hemisphere will be starting to come out of the inside more as it warms up.

There may have to be more hard shutdowns between now and then to get things under control in the worst-hit areas of the globe, but I would be surprised if we were in a hard shutdown anywhere in March let alone May.

I'm not saying it's a lock. Something unexpected could happen that would make having Worlds impossible. But it seems unlikely.

The question in my mind is whether or not there would be an audience. I would guess not. But even that is up in the air depending on how fast people get vaccinated and what that does to infection rates in the impacted countries (the ones having Worlds and sending people to Worlds).

Yes, canceling now would be premature, but announcing a postponement makes sense, assuming the logistics can be sorted out.

 

[kwanfan1818]

So that they can save themselves ten weeks of training expenses.

And the sooner they know about a cancellation, the earlier they can get a head start on getting new Olympic-season programs. There haven't been that many new programs this year, and among those with new ones, some have stated that they are experimenting before the Olympic season, not creating Olympic season programs. I suspect that if skaters with chances to go to Worlds knew earlier, they wouldn't waste time and money training their current programs.

This doesn't mean that they'd rather that Worlds be cancelled -- of course most of them want it to be held, if they qualify -- but if it's going to be cancelled anyway, I'm guessing they'd rather invest in next year.

 

[taz'smum]

However, don't you think the argument here is that most skaters actually would like to see if Worlds is a possibility rather than shutting it down that far in advance? I mean, even if it gets pushed back a month, 2 months, or whatever, I think they would mostly or all say they would like to compete, right?

It appears Tiff agrees with you

I asked her

If you had a choice between

1. Knowing in January that Worlds was cancelled for sure​

2. Hanging on until the end of Feb to see if the position improves
​

Which would you choose?

And she replied
Honestly I guess I would pick the second because worlds would mean we could get our spot for the olympics

 

[MsZem]

It appears Tiff agrees with you

And I bet if she asked friends and teammates most would say the same thing.

 

[Dobre]

Dipping toe in the water . . .

Do you think skaters & federations would be as opposed to holding Worlds this fall as we hypothesized they would be last fall?

I was liking the idea of May better; but it seems like the vaccination timeline is getting pushed back. So I am curious whether among the other options--trying to hold Worlds in March, pushing it back a month or two, designing a whole different qualification system based on scores or federation-by-federation allotments or two-year-old Worlds qualifications or a mix of these and Nebelhorn--I should also consider the possibility of everyone qualifying in competition next fall. In which case, why not Worlds instead of a Challenger?

Fall is preparation time. You want it for development of your Olympic programs. But everyone would be in the same boat. And those folks who usually have to qualify in the fall make it work. Possibly everyone could be there. Possibly it would be much safer than this spring. The qualification system would not need to be changed. It would not make country allotments woefully out of date.

I do see the pitfalls. I just wonder if it may be on the table if March turns out to be anything remotely like now.

 

[Erin]

Skaters training in other countries are badly missing their families, but dare not go home as they risk not being able to get back again in time for Worlds. I know for one, Tiff would come rushing home as soon as worlds is cancelled as she has not seen me since January and that was only a short visit and she is really missing me. So yes, knowing sooner rather than later does make a difference for the skaters.

If all skaters were rushing home to see as soon as there is an announcement about Worlds being cancelled, it seems like kind of irresponsible behaviour to me, given current case rates and that travel is discouraged.

 

[tony]

If all skaters were rushing home to see as soon as there is an announcement about Worlds being cancelled, it seems like kind of irresponsible behaviour to me, given current case rates and that travel is discouraged.

Travel is still happening everywhere and people are still going places, even in the US. It's irresponsible to get one flight out of the way so you can be situated for an extended amount of time, ie. the skating season is officially done until September or October? There is no mandatory stay at home order, and flights are not grounded.

Unless you have literally been sitting home and not doing a single thing outside the house in the last 9 months, then anything anyone has done could be considered 'irresponsible'.

 

[taz'smum]

If all skaters were rushing home to see as soon as there is an announcement about Worlds being cancelled, it seems like kind of irresponsible behaviour to me, given current case rates and that travel is discouraged.

Not irresponsible if proper precautions are taken, and quarantine periods are fully respected.
No more irresponsible than travelling to Worlds.

 

[Dobre]

I think that might depend on the status of hospitals in your country/state. Right now is not like any time in the previous 9 months here. Right now is in the middle of the holiday season & the worst surge a lot of people have seen. If one's hospitals are at 102% capacity like New Mexico, I think waiting until three weeks after Christmas would be a more responsible choice. Totally understand the need to come home and that a one-time move with precautions & quarantine time could be worth it to people. Also think there is not harm in having that happen after everyone else in the World is heading home.

Note: I have three guys outside pruning the trees in my yard. I am ever so grateful, and they are working outside. But one of them sounds like he is coughing up a lung . . .

 

[Vagabond]

And I'm still asking you why, in the mind of a competitor, it matters that it be canceled 2.5 months early. Why can't they announce in late-February that they are pushing it back? Why can't we just see where the world is at by then? So many people were claiming in May that there would be no figure skating season at all, after all.

These are complicated questions, and there is no easy answer right now. I have already given you an answer that you didn't like as to why a competitor would prefer a definite no to a maybe followed by a no at the last minute. On the other hand, it's possible that people will start following guidelines and orders more scrupulously and drastically cut the risk of transmission even before the vaccine hasn't happened. Or perhaps there will be a new vaccine of which vast numbers of doses can be produced quickly. But waiting for that comes with costs, as several of us have explained.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I think one of the points of contention is that we have no idea what the actual discussions are within the ISU and what kind of financial, insurance, logistical, and political considerations on which they're basing their decisions. And given how they've made decisions in the past, it's hard not to be .

 

[tony]

These are complicated questions, and there is no easy answer right now. I have already given you an answer that you didn't like as to why a competitor would prefer a definite no to a maybe followed by a no at the last minute. On the other hand, it's possible that people will start following guidelines and orders more scrupulously and drastically cut the risk of transmission even before the vaccine hasn't happened. Or perhaps there will be a new vaccine of which vast numbers of doses can be produced quickly. But waiting for that comes with costs, as several of us have explained.

And as one high-level competitor has already directly relayed into this thread, they would NOT prefer a definite no at this point. If the skaters have competed at all this year and are still training, you better believe most, if not all of them will say they'd like to hold on to whatever hope may exist into getting a potential Worlds. But feel free to find an article that shows a skater saying they've been training since rinks reopened in late summer and that they would prefer to just shut it all down way ahead of time rather than let the situation play out and maybe reschedule.

If the individual rinks remain open, skaters are still going to have ice time and lessons. So, as I have already explained, the cost factor doesn't make sense. Skaters are not going to take a 6 month break, if rinks remain open, just because Worlds aren't happening.

 

[starrynight]

I just don't want all the skaters mentally burned out before the Olympic season has started.

I don't know about everyone else, but this year has been rough. Everyone at my work is seriously struggling with motivation, haven't taken breaks and it's just a slog. I imagine for the athletes who haven't had the fun of competitions, haven't seen their families etc it's just as bad.

 

[tony]

I just don't want all the skaters mentally burned out before the Olympic season has started.

I don't know about everyone else, but this year has been rough. Everyone at my work is seriously struggling with motivation, haven't taken breaks and it's just a slog. I imagine for the athletes who haven't had the fun of competitions, haven't seen their families etc it's just as bad.

Would you rather the season completely shut down now (no more national-level comps or European-centric comps) and all skaters sit at home and do nothing?

Most people throughout the world have had to change some things around in 2020- some big changes, some small. Skaters want to be on the ice because most of them love what they are doing. The worst thing would be to shut everything down and then hope they all have the same motivation X months later.

 

[casken]

But feel free to find an article that shows a skater saying they've been training since rinks reopened in late summer and that they would prefer to just shut it all down way ahead of time rather than let the situation play out and maybe reschedule.

If someone did, would it even matter, honestly? Wouldn't the next argument be, "Well that's just one skater."

Would skaters who felt this way even feel comfortable going on the record about it? Especially in countries where it's controversial to take YKW seriously? What about the of risk falling out of favor with your federation for challenging them on this?

 

[tony]

If someone did, would it even matter, honestly? Wouldn't the next argument be, "Well that's just one skater."

Would skaters who felt this way even feel comfortable going on the record about it? Especially in countries where it's controversial to take YKW seriously? What about the of risk falling out of favor with your federation for challenging them on this?

Okay, so now the argument is hypothetically 'Well even though no one said it, skaters actually think this' ? Alright.... you know they have the ability to either stop training and/or decline a spot to any event.

But if they felt any kind of way, they wouldn't have been competing at all this season. They wouldn't have been going to the rink daily. They wouldn't have been keeping up with their gym workouts. They wouldn't have been traveling from A to B. The countries with spikes are still seeing skaters trying to compete as much as possible, if at all.

I'm going to get a bunch of but we still have people here trying to make it sound like everyone has to sit at home and do absolutely nothing. Flying has been shown to not be much of a risk. If you've gone to the grocery store or to lunch with a friend, even if on a patio, or if you go to a library or post office or a classroom or whatever, you're at risk. Gathering with 10 friends you 'know really well and trust' while not wearing a mask is a hell of a lot more risky.

 

[starrynight]

For me it's a logistical thing of whether the ISU can pull this off to ensure that the athletes can get to Sweden, compete and then return home without issue.

Being Australian, a lot of this is difficult for me to understand, because the borders are closed and there are strict caps on the numbers of overseas arrivals ... there are almost 40 thousand Australians trying to get back in and flights can cost up to $24k for three people. There are some terrible stories of people who left in March to visit family overseas and have not been able to return since because they can't afford the flights and can't get a reservation.

But I accept that elsewhere in the world it's possible for people to travel internationally en masse. But it's a bit to wrap my head around.

EDIT: finally got that link to work (the restricted words sure do play havoc with links)

 

[marbri]

My god the drama. There is a sea of difference between there not being a worlds competition (which would always been a worlds with a huge asterisk beside it because of the incredibly uneven playing field skaters around the world face) and skaters sitting at home and doing nothing.

 

[Ka3sha]

Rus Federarion is planning an event instead of Euros at the same dates to keep athletes motivated

Федерация фигурного катания РФ намерена организовать соревнования на замену отмененному ЧЕ

Турнир был отменен из-за коронавируса, он должен был пройти в Загребе с 24 по 31 января

tass.ru

 

[starrynight]

My god the drama. There is a sea of difference between there not being a worlds competition (which would always been a worlds with a huge asterisk beside it because of the incredibly uneven playing field skaters around the world face) and skaters sitting at home and doing nothing.

Oh I agree. It's going to be a political nightmare if it proceeds.

Drama from forced withdrawals due to last minute rona tests, underprepared skaters, spots being decided based on depleted teams, judges scoring skaters based on trying to preserve spots rather than what happens on the ice...

I wonder if a country concealing a positive rona test to allow a skater to compete would be considered the same way as a doping violation?

 

[casken]

I'm going to get a bunch of but we still have people here trying to make it sound like everyone has to sit at home and do absolutely nothing.

I don't get that at all.

 

[missing]

Would you rather the season completely shut down now (no more national-level comps or European-centric comps) and all skaters sit at home and do nothing?

Most people throughout the world have had to change some things around in 2020- some big changes, some small. Skaters want to be on the ice because most of them love what they are doing. The worst thing would be to shut everything down and then hope they all have the same motivation X months later.

I can, without too much effort, think of 3 other "worst things."

Worst thing #1 is a shortage of qualified judges (an issue the US Nationals might be facing, according to Philip Hersh), with the event ultimately decided by last minute replacement judges, and Olympic spots determined and questioned as a result.

Worst thing #2 is skaters stranded in Sweden, unable to return to their home country or the country where they are coached.

Worst thing #3 (and my own personal worst thing) is that a March Worlds turns into a superspreader event, with coaches, judges and skaters getting sick and bringing the sickness back with them.

I'm sure there are high level skaters who lose motivation over the course of their careers. There are generally a number of post Olympic retirements. And it could well be that there are skaters now who are looking at an uncertain situation and weighing it against going to school or entering the work world.

But my guess is the ones who really want to compete in the Olympics will have the same, or greater, motivation, and a postponed (or even an cancelled) Worlds 2021 won't change that.

 

[AxelAnnie]

We don't know how long vaccine distribution will take. We don't know what will become available in the next few months. We also don't know how even partial vaccinations will affect infection rates. In short, it's too soon to make a call one way or another, which is why the ISU hasn't committed itself to any course of action yet.

I wish TPTB would cancel sooner rather than later. A lot of money time and effort is being spent by the skaters to keep ready for a competition that most likely will not happen. Even if the actual competition could be held in some kind of safe environment................there is no way to select for Worlds that has any integrity.
As to Herd Immunity.......From WHO.

"With herd immunity, the vast majority of a population are vaccinated, lowering the overall amount of virus able to spread in the whole population. As a result, not every single person needs to be vaccinated to be protected, which helps ensure vulnerable groups who cannot get vaccinated are kept safe.


The percentage of people who need to have antibodies in order to achieve herd immunity against a particular disease varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated. For polio, the threshold is about 80%."

Pharmaceutical and vaccine production involves complex coordination, involving product development, manufacturing, packaging, storage, distribution, and regulatory review, and each stage can cause unexpected delays.

and this from the New York Times

After months of deliberation and debate, a panel of independent experts advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention voted Tuesday to recommend that health care workers who are most at risk of contracting Covid-19, along with residents of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, be the first Americans to receive coronavirus vaccinations.

So I am thinking Figure Skaters who are young and healthy are going to be kind of far down the list of who gets what when.

I somehow don't see that happening in three months.........let alone in time for things to open up and get back to any kind of normal level for skaters to train.

 

[tony]

I can, without too much effort, think of 3 other "worst things."

Worst thing #1 is a shortage of qualified judges (an issue the US Nationals might be facing, according to Philip Hersh), with the event ultimately decided by last minute replacement judges, and Olympic spots determined and questioned as a result.

Worst thing #2 is skaters stranded in Sweden, unable to return to their home country or the country where they are coached.

Worst thing #3 (and my own personal worst thing) is that a March Worlds turns into a superspreader event, with coaches, judges and skaters getting sick and bringing the sickness back with them.

I'm sure there are high level skaters who lose motivation over the course of their careers. There are generally a number of post Olympic retirements. And it could well be that there are skaters now who are looking at an uncertain situation and weighing it against going to school or entering the work world.

But my guess is the ones who really want to compete in the Olympics will have the same, or greater, motivation, and a postponed (or even an cancelled) Worlds 2021 won't change that.

#1- can easily be solved by the ISU saying that 2021 Worlds does not determine Olympic spots. If countries are unable to attend, even if in part because of #2 or simply because they don't feel safe, then it's not going to affect Olympic spot distribution. A lot of things are going to have to be reworked. If the fall of 2021 has us back to semi-normal, they can figure out a qualifying system even if it's taking something like two different ISU seasons best scores for each skater/team, averaging it, and giving 3 spots to the first 2 countries that show up on the top list, 2 spots to X amount of countries, etc. Worlds does not have to be the only way they can determine this, and since they are pulling numbers from 2019 into this year anyways, I'd rather they figure out a different system for 2022. The Olympic qualifying event for the remaining spots can take place at the same time (same rink) as the GPFinal, even.

#3- How is this any different than going to the rink every day to train with other people whose every action outside the rink you cannot guarantee? Or how is it different than any other competition that has taken place this year, including Skate America, where skaters had to get from A to B anyways? For me, this goes back to the gathering of '10 people or less' or whatever number your area has decided. But if it's 11, you're suddenly at risk?

 

[Rebecca Moose]

And I'm still asking you why, in the mind of a competitor, it matters that it be canceled 2.5 months early. Why can't they announce in late-February that they are pushing it back? Why can't we just see where the world is at by then? So many people were claiming in May that there would be no figure skating season at all, after all.

All of this.

Marry me, Tony?

 

[GarrAargHrumph]

With the outdoor Winter World Cups in other sports currently being held as scheduled, is there any suitable outdoor facility to host events, or would that be too difficult to operate to create a 'Controlled' environment?

The NHL rents out non-skating facilities for that big outdoor game(s) they have every year, and turns them into ice rinks. For example, they've used baseball and football stadiums. So we have options beyond existing outdoor rinks. Price, however, may be an issue.

I can, without too much effort, think of 3 other "worst things."

Worst thing #1 is a shortage of qualified judges (an issue the US Nationals might be facing, according to Philip Hersh), with the event ultimately decided by last minute replacement judges, and Olympic spots determined and questioned as a result.

Worst thing #2 is skaters stranded in Sweden, unable to return to their home country or the country where they are coached.

Worst thing #3 (and my own personal worst thing) is that a March Worlds turns into a superspreader event, with coaches, judges and skaters getting sick and bringing the sickness back with them.

#1: In order to judge at US Nationals, you need to be a certain level of judge. Likewise, judges (and tech specialists and other officials) who are allowed to officiate at international events have qualified to do so. Even a last minute replacement will have the appropriate qualifications. Under the current rules as I've experienced them, if they can't get the appropriate level of judge, the event can't be held. This happens at lower level competitions and test sessions in the US occasionally - if they don't have the right number and level of judges, that part of the event is cancelled. There's no go around for this situation that I know of or have experienced, although others with more knowledge of the USFS/ISU rules can certainly comment.

#2: this is somewhat of a concern. Some of my foreign students were stuck in the US for a while, for similar reasons.

#3: yup.

 

[gkelly]

#1: In order to judge at US Nationals, you need to be a certain level of judge. Likewise, judges (and tech specialists and other officials) who are allowed to officiate at international events have qualified to do so. Even a last minute replacement will have the appropriate qualifications. Under the current rules as I've experienced them, if they can't get the appropriate level of judge, the event can't be held. This happens at lower level competitions and test sessions in the US occasionally - if they don't have the right number and level of judges, that part of the event is cancelled. There's no go around for this situation that I know of or have experienced, although others with more knowledge of the USFS/ISU rules can certainly comment.

I can imagine using panels of 7 instead of 9 judges at Nationals. But they do need to have national judges.

And tech panels.

And accountants, music technicians, announcers, etc.

And ISU-level officials for Worlds.

 

[misskarne]

I think the judge/official issue is a pertinent point. There aren't endless supplies of judges qualified for these levels (especially internationally). It takes years of work to get to that point - with the result that many of the international judges particularly are getting into that more vulnerable age bracket.

Judges are also volunteers. For many of them, their employment could be at risk if they willingly travelled overseas, or if they travelled to an event that became a spreader, or if they became ill themselves. I imagine the medical bills for a judge who travelled to US Nationals and got sick would be horrendous.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

I think that most skaters would rather have a definite answer in January than train and have their hopes dashed at the last moment, as happened last season.

Especially, as many of the competitors and their support crews were already in Montreal when the event was cancelled.