Women - Olympic Qualifying - April Edition

[Karen-W]

Now that Worlds is over, the question on everyone's minds is who will earn the 5 spots allocated in September in Beijing?

Options include the Top 8 skaters on the SB from countries that have not earned spots - SB range from 154.22 to 166.04, with the outlier of Gubanova's 198.61 from Euros.

 

[caseyedwards]

No reason to believe anyone from Russia will be eligible

Gubanova Hendrix definitely

 

[Kateri]

Can Josefin try? (ignoring whether Sweden would send her)

 

[tangerine dream]

Can Josefin try? (ignoring whether Sweden would send her)

Yes, any ISU member that hasn't already qualified a spot can send one skater.

 

[skateblessing]

Loena is still off the ice and only started training other light activities, I hope she is competition ready for September, if she isn´t, they can send Hovine instead.

I´m not sure Estonia would send Kiibus over Langerbaur

 

[kwanfan1818]

Can Josefin try? (ignoring whether Sweden would send her)

Even if Sweden sent her to Beijing, the wouldn’t send her to Milan. She’s used up her “promising athlete” exception.

 

[Kateri]

Even if Sweden sent her to Beijing, the wouldn’t send her to Milan. She’s used up her “promising athlete” exception.

I know, that's what I meant by ignoring whether Sweden would send her.

 

[skateblessing]

Even if Sweden sent her to Beijing, the wouldn’t send her to Milan. She’s used up her “promising athlete” exception.

Do SOC still operate this way? Yikes. I know there was much talk about if they worked on changing it, but I never saw any confirmation if they did?

IIRC they required a score equal top 8 at the previous Worlds, or to be sent on the promising athlete exception.

If they still operate this way, this would be the requirement score for OG 2026:

Women: 196.67 (Nina P. 8th place)
Men: 265.40 (Jason Brown 8th place)
Ice Dance: 195.63 (L/B 8th place)

Which of course it´s impossible and crazy requirement for the athletes involved, and the athletes are depending on the promising athlete exception.

(Don´t bother with the pairs scores because it´s almost impossible for the Swedish twins to get a spot now)

I think Andreas might still get promising athlete exception, but i´m wondering if that would apply to R/M IF they were to get a spot and Milla to get her citizenship in time. Majorov already went to one Olympics, and they are indeed very promising, but would SOC see it that way? Milla is young, but Majorov is older.

I´m sure R/M must have had this in mind when they started to skate for Sweden instead for Norway. Particular ID scores that are heavy political would be an absurd requirement for such a new team. So that make me wonder if they knew something about SOC have changed their requirements or are they are simply gambling they will get an exception in the future? It´s possible they just based in on that on that time, Norway had one team and Sweden didn´t, and they thought competition would be easier in Sweden. Now the situation is completely different regarding ice dance teams in Sweden and Norway is without a team, but for now they are still very much the best team.

They have said they are not expecting to make it to Olympics now, but they surely are likely candidates for 2030. And by 2030 Majorov is even older and promising athletes exception would be even bigger gamble. It would be a shame for Milla to get citizenship and then miss Olympics because of SOC. I´m sure the Norwegian skating Fed would welcome them with open arms if this is how it all ends. I cant imagine they wont be sent to Olympics as part of team Norway. But they would probably have to start a transfer soon if they don´t want to gamble on 2030.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I have no idea if there are any changes afoot with the Swedish Olympic Committee, but he certainly has first-hand experience, and so did his brother.

I've never read anything that said that there is an age limit; Taljegard was 26 when she competed in Beijing, turning 27 later in 2022. (She turns 30 this summer.) Majorov turns 25 this August and will still be 25 for the 2026 Milan Olympics. 29 is not even out of college for an ice dancer, and if she has citizenship for 2030, she'll be younger than Taljegard was in 2022.

 

[skateblessing]

Hm...Thanks. Maybe it´s not looking so bad. But it kinda must be a bit frustrating to know for sure if you might be turned down in 3 years. It would kinda be nice for them if they were able to snatch one of the last ID spots in China for 26, Milla would get her citizenship in time and SOC would either send them on promising athlete exception or not. If they don´t, they would know already in a few months they would probably need to transfer, still a lot of time before 2030. Of course that would suck, but it would even be worse if they stick and then get turned down in 2030. And they are not really expecting to go now, so the disappointment might not be that big. They might just snatch one of the last spots, but I don´t feel confident that Milla will get her citizenship in time. So I don´t think they will be in this position now.

I´m still not sure I feel confident they are young enough for 2030 if SOC still operates the same way. I had to go back and check, and Alexander Majorov was only 26 when he was turned down. I would think there are more things that decides, Alexander had already been to one Olympics, but so has Nikolaj. Question is if Millas young age, her being to Olympics before and Nikolaj changing disciplines would make a difference for promising athletes exception. I agree 29 is still fairly young for ice dance, but i´m not sure SOC seems it that way if they compare him to other Swedish winter athletes. But yeah, they have to be considered as team and not on Nikolaj himself.

 

[skateblessing]

I see this hasn´t been mentioned here, but apparently Belarus can also apply one athlete to qualify a spot, and from what I heard, Safonova has still competed the last years at Belarus National and seems to be in very good shape still. So the possibility that not only one spot, but two spots will go to unnamed skater is actually pretty high. I think people just assumed Safonova retired, but apparently not.

Edit: Had to check her social media. Apparently she was even doing 4Lo last year in training...

 

[farahfan]

A note: Maxine Bautista had to sit the year out because she's switching to Philippines, but plans on competing at the qualifier for an Olympic spot. She doesn't have an ISU best but got 160 at a domestic competition. I could see her as a legit contender for a spot if she comes out strong with some decent programs.

 

[Karen-W]

A note: Maxine Bautista had to sit the year out because she's switching to Philippines, but plans on competing at the qualifier for an Olympic spot. She doesn't have an ISU best but got 160 at a domestic competition. I could see her as a legit contender for a spot if she comes out strong with some decent programs.

No way, no how are domestic 160s a barometer for what one can expect internationally.

The last time she competed internationally, by the way, was 2021, so there shouldn't have been any reason for her to need to wait a year for a release.

Oh, and she scored 138.08 at that competition back in 2021.

2021 U.S. International Figure Skating Classic

Event Results for 2021 U.S. International Figure Skating Classic

ijs.usfigureskating.org

 

[farahfan]

No way, no how are domestic 160s a barometer for what one can expect internationally.

The last time she competed internationally, by the way, was 2021, so there shouldn't have been any reason for her to need to wait a year for a release.

Oh, and she scored 138.08 at that competition back in 2021.

2021 U.S. International Figure Skating Classic

Event Results for 2021 U.S. International Figure Skating Classic

ijs.usfigureskating.org

USFS required her to sit out a year so I assumed it was ISU protocol. Otherwise Philippines would have sent her to Asian Winter Games. She’s the Philippines’s current women’s champion.

 

[caseyedwards]

I see this hasn´t been mentioned here, but apparently Belarus can also apply one athlete to qualify a spot, and from what I heard, Safonova has still competed the last years at Belarus National and seems to be in very good shape still. So the possibility that not only one spot, but two spots will go to unnamed skater is actually pretty high. I think people just assumed Safonova retired, but apparently not.

Edit: Had to check her social media. Apparently she was even doing 4Lo last year in training...

It all depends on where her training money / income comes from. If it’s from sanctioned pro war companies like Russian skaters she is out! It’s all about explicit verbal to implicit nonverbal support of war. Like with Russians skaters it’s easy to see their implicit nonverbal support.

 

[Karen-W]

USFS required her to sit out a year so I assumed it was ISU protocol. Otherwise Philippines would have sent her to Asian Winter Games. She’s the Philippines’s current women’s champion.

There's something about this timeline that isn't adding up.

The Boston NQS was in October. So, if they're requiring her to sit out a full year then she won't get a release to compete for the Philippines until next October, after the Olympic Qualifying Event in Beijing, but apparently, she or her team are thinking they'll have her release by this summer.

If the USFS isn't making her sit out a full year then why would they have withheld the release for a skater who wasn't even on their ISP this season? Even with the decision to switch coming sometime between the Boston NQS and Midwestern Sectionals (where she didn't compete), I'm unclear as to why the USFS didn't just give her a release immediately and give her best wishes to compete at AWG.

Regardless of all that, you're still kidding yourself if you believe that a US domestic NQS score in the 158-161 range is what can reasonably be expected internationally. Of course, Starr Andrews scored 190+ at both of her NQS comps last summer/fall and her ISU SB is 164.89, while Lindsay Thorngren scored 191 at her NQS and then delivered a ISU SB of 179.45 a month later, but maybe the 10% typical domestic score bump that seems to happen regularly at USFS NQS comps somehow, magically, didn't apply to Maxine & she'll actually match her 160-ish NQS scores internationally once she has her release.

 

[farahfan]

There's something about this timeline that isn't adding up.

The Boston NQS was in October. So, if they're requiring her to sit out a full year then she won't get a release to compete for the Philippines until next October, after the Olympic Qualifying Event in Beijing, but apparently, she or her team are thinking they'll have her release by this summer.

If the USFS isn't making her sit out a full year then why would they have withheld the release for a skater who wasn't even on their ISP this season? Even with the decision to switch coming sometime between the Boston NQS and Midwestern Sectionals (where she didn't compete), I'm unclear as to why the USFS didn't just give her a release immediately and give her best wishes to compete at AWG.

Regardless of all that, you're still kidding yourself if you believe that a US domestic NQS score in the 158-161 range is what can reasonably be expected internationally. Of course, Starr Andrews scored 190+ at both of her NQS comps last summer/fall and her ISU SB is 164.89, while Lindsay Thorngren scored 191 at her NQS and then delivered a ISU SB of 179.45 a month later, but maybe the 10% typical domestic score bump that seems to happen regularly at USFS NQS comps somehow, magically, didn't apply to Maxine & she'll actually match her 160-ish NQS scores internationally once she has her release.

I have no idea what went on between the two feds. Maxine said in an interview last year that she was planning on USFS releasing her in July 2025, which would allow her to compete for the Philippines in the qualifier. I’d imagine she’d try to do a competition or two beforehand and that will show us what she’s been working on this past year and where she might stack up against the rest.