The next LADIES OLY Champion..expected or surprise this season?

[Karpenko]

You mean Skate Canada didn't already go into politik-overdrive with Osmond already this season?

Hope dies last. Janny will destroy her next season.

She doesn't even have 1/4th of Janny's nerves of steel, and she's defending 2nd place now. That should be tons of fun for her.

She can definitely medal though unless she mucks it up somehow! (I predict that she does, but not in the team event SP)



Im sorry, I hope I'm wrong Osmond lovers (really. But I like Daleman's personality a lot more)... but for the love of Sasha Cohen, did you see how many times she biffed and fell last year?! A LOT. Holy it happened many times! I don't get why some people will still grasp at straws of hope, but then again I never got it with Sasha either.

That train is leaving, on that midnight train to Georgia, and it isn't boarding again until she hits a LP for once. Prove me wrong Kaetlyn!!

 

[RoseRed]

You mean Skate Canada didn't already go into politik-overdrive with Osmond already this season?

Hope dies last. Janny will destroy her next season.

She doesn't even have 1/4th of Janny's nerves of steel, and she's defending 2nd place now. That should be tons of fun for her.

She can definitely medal though unless she mucks it up somehow! (I predict that she does, but not in the team event SP)



Im sorry, I hope I'm wrong Osmond lovers (really. But I like Daleman's personality a lot more)... but for the love of Sasha Cohen, did you see how many times she biffed and fell last year?! A LOT. Holy it happened many times! I don't get why some people will still grasp at straws of hope, but then again I never got it with Sasha either.

That train is leaving, on that midnight train to Georgia, and it isn't boarding again until she hits a LP for once. Prove me wrong Kaetlyn!!

I'm not predicting that Kaetlyn will beat Janny, but I do disagree with a couple things you said here. You think being the defending silver medalist will weigh on her, but a lot of commentators have said that her problem is that she doesn't always seem to believe she belongs with the best, and things she and her coach have said seem to back that up. So if that's the case, the medal may be more helpful than something that just adds pressure. And secondly, I know a lot of people thought her issues in the LP were a combo of focus issues and stamina issues possibly related to that broken leg/ankle she had a couple seasons ago (I know hockey players who've had similar injuries and said it took them 3 years to feel fully normal again). So if stamina was a part of the issue (obviously not the whole issue or anything), that can be improved more easily than mental toughness. I expect her to be more consistent this coming season than last season (not Janny levels of course). I'm hoping for silver for her at the games, and if something crazy happens and she ends up with gold, that's great, but not my expectation at all.

 

[Karpenko]

^ and that's completely fine. I'm personally not expecting it, but I do think some posters like @danafan should really reconsider insulting Medvedeva with that bogus disclaimer about her scores now. (Every single time you log into FSU.. )

It makes the people you're rooting for look bad, and it's doing nothing but showing disrespect for the amount of clean programs Janny has delivered this year. isn't skating clean program after clean program after clean program making "the difficult look easy?" You might want to reword it at this point, but that's just my opinion.

As time goes on, that'll just get more and more ridiculous. And also reeks of whine. Is the two-time World Champion not the "greatest athlete"? I get that you're trying to be cool and do "what's right".... but no. Foul ball.

I do agree that Kaetlyn is the skater with all of the ingredients to beat her. It's just Janny is the most consistent top skater, Kaetlyn (right now) is far and away the most inconsistent. The odds are highly against her right now for the gold.

 

[quartz]

Well, as we have seen in the recent US Presidential election, sometimes the most consistent top player, with the odds in her favor, doesn't win.
Life is weird and strange things happen.

 

[Karpenko]

Impeachment is my favorite word.

 

[museksk8r]

I expect Evgenia Medvedeva to win gold. I would not be surprised to see Marin Honda take one of the remaining medals. I'm not sure of the 3rd lady, but if Kaetlyn Osmond keeps her head together, the judges will surely reward her COP friendly programs and big skating style. If Carolina Kostner adds more difficult jump content, corrects her spins and keeps her head together, then a 2nd Olympic medal is possible for her.

 

[alchemy void]

If Carolina Kostner adds more difficult jump content, corrects her spins and keeps her head together, then a 2nd Olympic medal is possible for her.

That's quite a lot of ifs....

 

[Karpenko]

Lots of "if's" galore around here, innit?

I'm on the verge of saying screw this, I'm completely backing Japan this season. All this buildup and I'm already over it, we know who will win. Japan has some enormous talent coming up and I'm already tuned into next quad. Lovely quality skating!

I don't think anyone will beat Janny next year (did I say that yet?), she just makes every program look too easy, but Kaetlyn Osmond/Gabby Daleman 2019/2020 World Champion seems very possible IMO!

 

[Coco]

I want to see some of these first year seniors before I comment...


And a word about 1998 - a lot of us can see logically how Lipinski and Kwan should have had closer odds in retrospect, but during the Games themselves, Kwan was a massive favorite. She was 2-0 against Tara that season, plus Tara had lost to Hubert earlier that season and her win over Tanja S. at the Champion Series Final was mildly controversial to some, although it shouldn't have been (# of triples in combination, transitions, etc.).

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I want to see some of these first year seniors before I comment...


And a word about 1998 - a lot of us can see logically how Lipinski and Kwan should have had closer odds in retrospect, but during the Games themselves, Kwan was a massive favorite. She was 2-0 against Tara that season, plus Tara had lost to Hubert earlier that season and her win over Tanja S. at the Champion Series Final was mildly controversial to some, although it shouldn't have been (# of triples in combination, transitions, etc.).

Excellent 98 recap. I agree.

When February came around tho I was feeling Lipinski. She had nerves of steel usually (slightly more than Kwan because the rare times nerves came in for her it would just result in tightness.)

Side note: I was such an uber Bobek. Things went very south between January and February

 

[VGThuy]

I think it was clear that Bobek was putting everything into making the Olympic team and put it all on the line at Nationals. I think she overtrained herself in a short period of time before Nationals and became seriously injured by the time Nagano happened. You can see the look on Crista Fassi's face after the SP. It was like she knew that was what was going to happen.

 

[Coco]

I believe Bobek had bronchitis in between Nationals and Olympics, too.

 

[LKR]

Zagitova is a much more dangerous threat for the podium than people are giving her credit for IMO, and I do not see her slowing down for the Olympic year. Eteri will ensure of it.

She is the one skater (except maybe Elizaveta with a 3A) who can technically match, or even surpass, Evgenia: she beat Medvedeva's TES in the long at Russian Nationals. Zagitova's world juniors TES was 75.81, but if you add points for the choreo spiral (she received 3.2 at Russian Nationals) she is up to a 79. Medvedeva's TES at Worlds was just above 78, her highest up until that point (at WTT she received 82). This doesn't mean Zagitova is likely to beat Medvedeva, but she is the only one right now reliably capable of TES in the high 70s. With a totally clean effort Osmond might get near, and she will have the PCS to match, but we have never seen that. I would like to say Marin Honda could too, but she was more than five points short of Zagitova on TES (at junior Worlds).

Zagitova's PCS wouldn't be competitive for OGM yet, although they're actually higher than what Medvedeva received as a junior. The Russian ladies are seldom lowballed, so I expect Zagitova's component scores to rise as a senior but not reach Evgenia's level. Honestly if I were Evgenia I would make as few adjustments for next season as possible. She can Tano and Rippon all she wants for +2/3 GOE across the board and call it a day. If she's going 78+ TES with her current content, Zagitova could only edge her slightly and Medvedeva would easily make up any technical deficit on PCS. Maybe Medvedeva could add a loop-loop combo to the short if she really wants, or test something new on the Grand Prix, but it shouldn't be necessary. She can be comforted than even if Zagitova is rivaling her technically, she is doing so while totally maxed out with lutz-loop in both programs and everything backloaded.

That said, I'm picturing Zagitova with a minor medal and she also is an excellent competitor with jump technique which should last her at least another season. Her toe jumps are actually stronger than Janny's. Osmond is the other one, who, if absolutely clean, would get close to Medvedeva but would still end up just short (unless the tides turned and Osmond went clean and Medvedeva made a mistake, imagine....) Daleman, the two Japanese, Pogo/3rd Russian, or even Kostner I wouldn't rule out for minor medals. Karen Chen on a perfect night might even be able to pull off a Denis Ten. Wagner has technically regressed since 2015/2016--the spins weaker, the jumps less and less rotated--where I think she has enough left in the tank to make the team but not win an individual medal. Gracie Gold........last month she was only capable of a double toe. If she is any condition to be in the same league as Evgenia by Pyeongchang, that will be the comeback of all ages.

 

[VGThuy]

I think it's very possible for Zagitova to have a season like Medvedeva did in 2015-2016. The one big difference, of course, is that Medvedeva didn't have to compete against herself that season. The world title was quite open for her to take. Zagitova having to dethrone Med is quite different from Med winning the World title after Gracie Gold placed first after the short and Ashley Wagner beating Pogo for the silver during the LP. I can see Zagitova's PCS rising if she's a machine all season, but I am not quite convinced yet that her PCS will be close enough to overtake Med's advantage there even with higher BV. I do wonder how Zagitova's GOEs on her jumps will play out v. Med though.

 

[Spun Silver]

I honestly think this is one discipline where the winner has already been decided. I would love to see Zagitova have a superstar senior debut and beat Medvedeva head to head (will they go head to head anywhere?) but it would take a Med collapse PLUS a Zagitova Star is Born season to make the judges change course. JMO. There is always that slim chance that Med will make mistakes on those fateful two nights, or like Kwan, feel the sword hanging over her head and skate tight. But so far there is no sign of those nerves.

 

[Karpenko]

The thing is there's so much talent in ladies it's crazy, but in the midst of all of that the only way to differentiate them is who is consistently hitting+constantly improving? Being a stud of a competitor can make certain things more forgivable, that's why Plushenko was still head and shoulders above the field from 2003-2006. She's just throwing in extra stuff (like a 3/3/3, or doing a 3/3 for every jumping pass in training) for fun, because nobody else has stepped up to challenge her.

The only reason I think it'll be impossible for a new senior to win gold over her (unless she somehow messes up), is how many times in the past have we seen the judges willing to throw out the 9.5's-10.0's to a first-year senior? By theory, they should be getting much better every year (like Evgenia has done since her starting-point) so why throw out those huge scores right away?

Janny has made 0 big mistakes in competition since Skate Canada (or maybe 1? I can't remember), so she'll have had a couple more seasons to show growth from year-to-year to the judges. I can't see the judges giving any of them any PCS near what they'll probably give Medvedeva. It is what it is really, she's not my absolute favorite but I just can't believe some won't admit they're wrong sometimes about her (when she does nothing but hit). It opens the door to negative replies when she keeps nailing programs. Its not going to gain any international allies heading into the Olympic year either.

I think silver/bronze to newbies is possible though. It's hard to fathom this, but the only time Janny, Kaetlyn, and Gabby will compete against each other again before the Olympics is the GPF (assuming they all make it). There really aren't many opportunities left for the field to get an advantage in before 2018.

 

[LKR]

I agree. It also hurts Zagitova that she is from the same country as the skater she is chasing. Obviously Russia would politik much harder for her if Medvedeva weren't in the picture. Eteri has already said she is probably fighting for #2 in Russia. But ice is slippery, especially at an Olympic Games, so on the small chance Medvedeva gives it away, I see Zagitova as the most likely benefactor. For now.

That said, I will be devastated if Medvedeva doesn't win. She is not perfect, and her programs certainly aren't, but she has a presence and confidence unlike anyone else I've seen. She is the best in the world and would be a worthy OGM.

 

[Marco]

Don't forget Lipnitskaya was in similar shoes prior to Sochi. She dominated in juniors but didn't become age eligible for senior championships until 2013-4, but went on to win Euros and Oly Team Gold with clean performances in her first senior championship season.

Granted Zagitova will only have 1 GP season under her belt prior to PC compared to Lipnitskaya's 2, I think if she skates well enough in the GPs and medals at the GPF, she will see high 8s to low 9s at Euros - especially if Pogorilaya doesn't deliver.

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

I believe Bobek had bronchitis in between Nationals and Olympics, too.

too much partying.

 

[RoseRed]

I do agree that Kaetlyn is the skater with all of the ingredients to beat her. It's just Janny is the most consistent top skater, Kaetlyn (right now) is far and away the most inconsistent. The odds are highly against her right now for the gold.

I might throw Anna in after what happened at Worlds, and she only had 3/8 FS without any URs or pops (and two had 3Fe). Kaetlyn had more falls in the FS over the season, but Worlds was...
And even Marin had combo issues in half her SP, and a pop in every FS except Worlds. Better than Kaetlyn maybe, but not far and away (not sure if you consider her a top lady)

But I know that's not really the point, and yes, I do agree that consistency is not her strong suit.

 

[Karpenko]

Anna had many clean LP's this season though. She just made up for all of the lost time in Helsinki (she hadn't done that since 2016 Euros).

I'd count Kaetlyn's mistakes since Skate Canada in competition, but I'm not that masochistic. I guarantee you it's in the double digits though, certainly not "making the difficult look effortless" at this point in time.

(But she could be well on her way, she's going to be around until 2022 and will hopefully get out of this Sasha Cohen phase)

I like her, but some of her fans tend to irritate the **** out of me (not you, and only a very select few) so I'll be vocal when there's a double standard there. Sorry not sorry.

Wishing or secretly hoping for someone to mess up so your favorite (who always messes up) has a chance is just pathetic sportsmanship to display before an Olympic season IMO. Pretty desperate if you're honestly doing that. (Again, not you. I love and respect a lot of Kaetlyn Osmond fans.) Kaetlyn would be so proud a few of her fans are always trashing Janny's scores or hoping that she falls...so that Kaetlyn can win? Do you guys even consider that? Yeah, that's just asking for karma.

Marin I consider to be a top lady, but a junior. Totally new, and hasn't been around since 2013 like Kaetlyn Osmond.

 

[Vash01]

I am rooting for Zhenya Medvedeva to win the OGM, but I don't see her as unbeatable. I think the biggest threats to her would be Osmond and Gold, if Gracie makes a real comeback this season, and I think she can, with the new coach. Zagitova has the technical goods and competitive spirit, but her PCS may not get in the OGM range this season. I don't see any other Russian lady dethroning Zhenya, this close to the Olympics. The RSF will ensure that, just in case Zhenya has a bad day.

Ashley could come close too, but she will have to be technically perfect and then her PCS could exceed Zhenya's. If Zhenya maintains the kind of consistency she had the last two season, and tops it off with two stellar Olympic performances, she will be tough to beat, but I wouldn't say impossible.

 

[DimaToe]

Ashley could come close too, but she will have to be technically perfect and then her PCS could exceed Zhenya's. If Zhenya maintains the kind of consistency she had the last two season, and tops it off with two stellar Olympic performances, she will be tough to beat, but I wouldn't say impossible.

As much as I love Wagner I get the feeling that she might have the fate of Suguri in 2006 and Johnny in 2010. At the most I'd say she could get a bronze. Although a medal of any color would probably have me crying for a month

 

[bardtoob]

As much as I love Wagner I get the feeling that she might have the fate of Suguri in 2006 and Johnny in 2010.

She has not overstayed her welcome according to her federation, and it would be an improvement if she achieved as much as Fumie.

 

[dawnie]

I will be shocked if Medvedeva doesn't win and I'm thinking it's possible that new seniors like Zagitova and Honda could round out the podium. I seriously doubt we will get a repeat of the World podium and have both Osmond and Daleman on the podium at the Olympics. I think that was definitely a once in a million years thing to have two Canadian ladies on the podium. No offense Canucks

 

[AxelAnnie]

I am stuck in a chair recovering from ankle surgery....and I have been re-watching a lot of figure skating. (Beats Lifetime movies). It is interesting to watch skates months after they happened.

I re-watched Medvedeva at worlds last night as well as all I could find of Zagitova (who I had not seen before).

I will be the first to admit I am not a Medvedeva fan. She deserves total props for her consistency, her technical prowess and her ability to deliver time after time after time. Her skating, though, leaves me cold. I watched a couple of her programs last night and noticed a couple of things. Both her arms and legs are not "finished". I kept hearing Dick Button saying she needed to stretch and point her toes. Not horribly impressed with her music choices or her costumes. I know that is just me. Her tech is there. To my eye it misses the subtlety and beauty of the sport. But, then it is hard to pack it all in.

I loved Zagitova. She is a pistol. She has the tech chops but also the extension and nuance that was more evident in the sport in years past. I think she could be a real threat to Medvedeva.

 

[DimaToe]

She has not overstayed her welcome according to her federation, and it would be an improvement if she achieved as much as Fumie.

Not so much comparing careers between the 2. Just saying that she might not be on the mind of TPTB as one of the possible medalists, which IMO was the situation with Weir and Suguri.

 

[clairecloutier]

I think my secret/not-so-secret wish is to see Marin Honda as Olympic champion. She's special. It's been a long, LONG time, though, since the lady whom I wanted to win OGM actually did win. In fact, it's only ever happened once, in the years I've been a fan; so I'm not too hopeful.

It does appear Med has this one as close to sewn up as an OGM can be (7 months out). Below her, anything could happen, it seems.

 

[RoseRed]

Anna had many clean LP's this season though. She just made up for all of the lost time in Helsinki (she hadn't done that since 2016 Euros).

I'd count Kaetlyn's mistakes since Skate Canada in competition, but I'm not that masochistic. I guarantee you it's in the double digits though, certainly not "making the difficult look effortless" at this point in time.

(But she could be well on her way, she's going to be around until 2022 and will hopefully get out of this Sasha Cohen phase)

I like her, but some of her fans tend to irritate the **** out of me (not you, and only a very select few) so I'll be vocal when there's a double standard there. Sorry not sorry.

Wishing or secretly hoping for someone to mess up so your favorite (who always messes up) has a chance is just pathetic sportsmanship to display before an Olympic season IMO. Pretty desperate if you're honestly doing that. (Again, not you. I love and respect a lot of Kaetlyn Osmond fans.) Kaetlyn would be so proud a few of her fans are always trashing Janny's scores or hoping that she falls...so that Kaetlyn can win? Do you guys even consider that? Yeah, that's just asking for karma.

Marin I consider to be a top lady, but a junior. Totally new, and hasn't been around since 2013 like Kaetlyn Osmond.

I did count them actually . It's a lot. There's no arguing with that. For Anna it's more that she was super inconsistent all the previous season until Worlds 2016, seemed to have turned the corner then fell apart so dramatically at Worlds 2017, so the potential is there for her to fall apart at any moment with me. And she is kind of messy even when she's clean (not like it's just her), which is a separate thing, I was just reminded of it when I looked at their protocols from the whole . season.

And I get what you're saying. Honestly, I'd be thrilled to bits to see Kaetlyn win gold because she's by far my favourite ladies skater, but I also don't want to see Janny fall apart or anything. I like her and since she's such a huge favourite, even silver would be a big disappointment for her, which would suck to see. I think something like Kaetlyn getting silver then winning Worlds if Janny skipped would be just amazing (I mean, so would just silver/a medal, but dream big). My ideal would be Kaetlyn winning, but with everyone happy with their performances and realistically, the second one means silver for my girl, which is fine by me.

 

[Marco]

Not so much comparing careers between the 2. Just saying that she might not be on the mind of TPTB as one of the possible medalists, which IMO was the situation with Weir and Suguri.

The thing about Fumie in 2006 and Johnny in 2010 is that they were no longer medal contenders by that time, but were still better shots in delivering than others that their country could have sent.

Same is probably true for Ashley. Nationals can be interesting Karen, Mirai, Mriah and Gracie all deliver / outscore Ashley in the GPs.