2024-25 USFS International Assignments

[Karen-W]

If you come to the US as a child, I do know that you can't become naturalized unless one of your parents becomes naturalized first.

All this secrecy about pairs citizenship is maddening. We fans can't do our duty of forecasting things properly. Why can't all skaters be like Filippo Clerici who just came straight out and said I ain't doing no citizenship process and I ain't going to the Olympics??

Why are we assuming that his father isn't an American?

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Seems to me that it's at least within the realm of possibility that he is half American, half Russian.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Except that the bulk of ChanHowe's WS points are going to be dropped after this season and they have just their Worlds points from last season and their GP/Int'l points from this season, so they're going to drop quite a bit. Now, I think they're a quality enough team that if they come out strong in some early Challengers next season, they're not going to be hurt if they wind up in the first group at any GP.

Ooof, that will teach me to read the wrong row. (I thought the bulk of their points would get the 70% factoring.) That's also the case, though, for most of the teams that could catch them from Euros/Worlds points by the end of this season, but would drop back after their points were removed and last season's factored by 70%. I don't think they'd be in a first group because they didn't earn at 4C's.

McBeath and Parkman do need the WS points as much Shin/Nagy and Efimova/Mitrofanov for starting orders. (E/M are currently 9th on the SB list and are safe to be guaranteed at least one GP through SB, two if they're Top 10 at Worlds.) None are close to Top 24 WS for a guaranteed GP spot through WS, and M/P could use a guaranteed spot. There have been limited field internationals that qualify for WS points for the Top 5, like the Olympic qualifier, but there need to be five pairs from three countries in the event, or no WS points, so I don't know what M/P get from the 26 test event competition if there aren't.

M/P are currently 20th on the SB list; S/N are a little more than 3 points behind in 23rd. While WTT also has celebratory/inflated scores, I don't see any of the teams behind M/P getting enough points to surpass them at that event, but between 4C's/Euros and Worls, M/P are vulnerable to being dropped out of the Top 24 SB (guaranteed spot), with Nagaoka/Moriguchi being less than a point behind them, Vouillamoz/Bouvart and Shin/Nagy just a few points behind, and Vaananen/Fillici currently 7 points behind, which is not entirely out of reach. (Typically at least two competitors blow out their SB at championships, and Roscher/Schuster, who I think are the third German team at Euros, are 10 points out and should be less of a threat.) S/N will have 4C's to move up the SB standings and, hopefully, be guaranteed just one.

The more guaranteed spots there are, the less dealing needed to get any team one spot, leaving more cards to play to get a second for any team guaranteed one.

 

[Karen-W]

Ooof, that will teach me to read the wrong row. (I thought the bulk of their points would get the 70% factoring.) That's also the case, though, for most of the teams that could catch them from Euros/Worlds points by the end of this season, but would drop back after their points were removed and last season's factored by 70%. I don't think they'd be in a first group because they didn't earn at 4C's.

McBeath and Parkman do need the WS points as much Shin/Nagy and Efimova/Mitrofanov for starting orders. (E/M are currently 9th on the SB list and are safe to be guaranteed at least one through SB, two if they're Top 10 at Worlds.) None are close to Top 24 WS for a guaranteed GP spot through WS, and M/P could use a guaranteed spot. There have been limited field internationals that qualify for WS points for the Top 5, like the Olympic qualifier, but there need to be five pairs from three countries in the event, or no WS points, so I don't know what M/P get from the 26 test event competition.

M/P are currently 20th on the SB list; S/N are a little more than 3 points behind in 23rd. While WTT also has celebratory/inflated scores, I don't see any of the teams behind M/P getting enough points to surpass them at that event, but between 4C's/Euros and Worls, M/P are vulnerable to being dropped out of the Top 24 SB (guaranteed spot), with Nagaoka/Moriguchi being less than a point behind them, Vouillamoz/Bouvart and Shin/Nagy just a few points behind, and Vaananen/Fillici currently 7 points behind, which is not entirely out of reach. (Typically at least two competitors blow out their SB at championships, and Roscher/Schuster, who I think are the third German team at Euros, are 10 points out and should be less of a threat.) S/N will have 4C's to move up the SB standings and, hopefully, be guaranteed just one.

The more guaranteed spots there are, the less dealing needed to get any team one spot, leaving more cards to play to get a second for any team guaranteed one.

McBPark are less likely to drop out of the SB Top 24, IMO, than ShiNagy, who are almost guaranteed to do so with some of the other teams behind them. RoSchu are far less of a threat than VaanCler or Les Kovs, of the Euros teams. The way I see it, it doesn't really matter if a team like NagaMori, VouBou or ShiNagy move ahead of them on the SB list since they're already in the SB Top 24. It's a matter of whether or not there are enough teams 25 & lower who have the ability to put up a score that will knock McBPark out of the Top 24 entirely.

And, worse case scenario, the USFS can finagle an excuse to send them to WTT if they do get bumped out of the SB Top 24 by the time all the ISU Championships are said and done.

I haven't even started projecting the GP spots for next season on paper - I was running through the teams in my head last night, of the teams that warrant 2 GPs going into next season and I can easily list 20 teams - there just aren't enough GP spots for all the deserving teams.

 

[kwanfan1818]

It does matter whether the other teams in the Top 24 can surpass them, because that would put them on the cusp of being beaten by a team 25 or lower with a breakout skate and score at championships. Which means five teams including the current 21-24, who could push them out. I don't think it's a given, but they are vulnerable.

I don't see M/P being given WTT. USFS is not quite the Russian Fed, which does what it wants, and may have sent a team to WTT that didn't compete at Worlds, but I can't see, without a major injury, that K/O or E/M would pass up the fun and $$$ of WTT, unless they were offered a tour that precluded WTT that would be a lot more lucrative. It's more likely the WTT would be offered a few tour performances in Japan, since they were already there and would have a return ticket.

ETA: I forgot why I came into the thread, .

I hate the decision to send the Mullens over the Peals. I think this is a message that the Peals should break up and either re-team or retire. Please tell me if I'm not remembering correctly, but I thought, maybe on their vlog, that Ethan Peal said he is skating because his sister wanted to. I think both are terrific skaters, and I don't know if both would like to compete against each other, but this makes me sad, because I think they are the most well-matched of any of the sibling teams.

 

[her grace]

the other one is the olympic test event (which we haven't heard about any assignments from women or dance so I find this interesting)

Wait. The Olympic test event is on the same dates as 4CC. How is that fair to 4CC nations? It’s definitely an advantage for European skaters who can do their continental championships and the test event.

 

[Rukia]

Wait. The Olympic test event is on the same dates as 4CC. How is that fair to 4CC nations? It’s definitely an advantage for European skaters who can do their continental championships and the test event.

everything about this event is super random and weird lol you only get one entry but there's not enough room for every country to get one entry so you have to have permission from the isu to use your one entry

 

[Karen-W]

everything about this event is super random and weird lol you only get one entry but there's not enough room for every country to get one entry so you have to have permission from the isu to use your one entry

Yeah, and the window for the test event is large enough that the ISU & the Milano-Cortina organizers could have easily scheduled this for April.

 

[Jarrett]

Yeah, and the window for the test event is large enough that the ISU & the Milano-Cortina organizers could have easily scheduled this for April.

Maybe they want to be closer to when the olympic event would actually be in the year? lol

 

[her grace]

If it turns out Parkman has a US passport or green card, a lot of things will start to make more sense.

I dunno. If Parkman has citizenship, then why would they be skipped by Shin/Nagy for 4CC? They skated better at nationals/all season. Why skip them?

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Torgy and his costume are magnificent, sensational, love it

 

[kwanfan1818]

When did they schedule the test event? The Korean Fed asked for the 4C's dates to be moved. If the test event was scheduled before then, they may not have had the option of moving the test skate.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

delete

 

[nylynnr]

Why are we assuming that his father isn't an American?

Because it has been published in several interviews that Daniil was born in Russia to Russian parents.

 

[ross_hy]

Per Jackie:
Worlds: Jason Brown*, Ilia Malinin, Andrew Torgashev
alt 1: Camden Pulkinen, 2: Maxim Naumov, 3: Jimmy Ma
*Pending Return to Play Protocol

Four Continents: Maxim Naumov, Camden Pulkinen, Andrew Torgashev
alt 1: Jimmy Ma, 2: Tomoki Hiwatashi, Daniel Martynov

World Juniors: Patrick Blackwell, Jacob Sanchez
alt 1: Aleksandr Fegan, 2: Lorenzo Elano, 3: Kai Kovar

 

[Karen-W]

Per Jackie:
Worlds: Jason Brown*, Ilia Malinin, Andrew Torgashev
alt 1: Camden Pulkinen, 2: Maxim Naumov, 3: Jimmy Ma
*Pending Return to Play Protocol

Four Continents: Maxim Naumov, Camden Pulkinen, Andrew Torgashev
alt 1: Jimmy Ma, 2: Tomoki Hiwatashi, Daniel Martynov

World Juniors: Patrick Blackwell, Jacob Sanchez
alt 1: Aleksandr Fegan, 2: Lorenzo Elano, 3: Kai Kovar

Press release here - https://www.usfigureskating.org/new...s-world-world-junior-and-four-continents-team

 

[BittyBug]

Seriously? I simply cannot with their nonsense.

 

[Karen-W]

Seriously? I simply cannot with their nonsense.

Come over to the US Men's thread where we're actively discussing this, lol.

 

[Taso]

US politics continue to make me viscerally ill. This time figure skating. Ugh.

 

[MacMadame]

Come over to the US Men's thread where we're actively discussing this, lol.

No.

My mental health can't take thinking about this. Or what happened to McBPar for that matter.

 

[Dobre]

I hate the decision to send the Mullens over the Peals.

Really stupid. After the Peals exceeded the U.S. judges' Nationals predictive results at last year's Junior Worlds, medaled at two JGPs, competed at the Final, and earned the spot at Nationals, now the Peals have been taken off the list? They should appeal.

The Mullens are coming along, but they don't have the musicality and unison of a polished junior team.

 

[Dobre]

I'm very happy for Green & Parsons.

This ice dance battle is not for the faint-hearted; but they really looked like they were ready for this fight at Nationals.

 

[Dobre]

Wait. The Olympic test event is on the same dates as 4CC. How is that fair to 4CC nations?

The Olympic test event for Pyeongchang was 4CCs so in that case the non-4CC nations didn't get to compete at the test event.

 

[tony]

Wait. The Olympic test event is on the same dates as 4CC. How is that fair to 4CC nations? It’s definitely an advantage for European skaters who can do their continental championships and the test event.

The Olympic test event for Pyeongchang was 4CCs so in that case the non 4CC nations didn't get to compete at the test event.

2021 was Asian Open, 2012/13 was GPF, 2009 was 4CC, 2005 was Euros, 2001 was 4CC, 1997 was NHK Trophy, 1993 was an early-season 'B' event called Piruetten, 1991 was the French international competition that turned into Lalique/Bompard once the GP began, 1987 was Skate Canada.

There have always been skaters 'missing out' on the test competition.

Looking back even further, seems like the 1983 event was World Juniors, and 1979 was Skate America.

 

[Karen-W]

Really stupid. After the Peals exceeded the U.S. judges' Nationals predictive results at last year's Junior Worlds, medaled at two JGPs, competed at the Final, and earned the spot at Nationals, now the Peals have been taken off the list? They should appeal.

There is nothing to appeal. All the Selection Doc really does is outline how skaters are added to the Selection Pool, and it makes it clear the International Committee's directive is to put together the best team possible for the ISU Championship in question. The Peals and Mullens both did their jobs in skating well enough to be included in the Selection Pool.

At that point, it's out of their hands and into the International Committee's. Truth is, whichever of the Peals or Mullens go, they're looking at being the US #3 in an incredibly deep field with at least 6-7 teams who are likely to beat them - Tali/Lafornara, Wolfkostin/Tsarevski, Grimm/Savitskiy, Fradji/Forneaux, Pidgaina/Kovalev, Aboian/Veselukhin, with Zehnder/Sieber, Nguyen/Giang, Gauthier/Thieren, & France's 2nd team all vying for Top 10.

If the Peals had skated a blinder at the JGPF and knocked off one of the 5 teams who are definitely ahead of them, then they probably would have gotten the nod. Instead, they had their lowest score of the season, by a lot, and they didn't even beat the Mullens in the FD this week.

Your mileage may vary as to which team has more longterm potential, but the choice here isn't outrageous.

 

[jlai]

With all the handwringing over Jason/Camden, I think the more controversial assignments are:

Mullens over Peals (because the Peals also has a good record), the four Continents pairs assignments, and Elyce for jr worlds. The rest of them are close calls, and like I mentioned before, USFS isn't accountable to me, as long as the USFS members are fine with it and the criteria are explained to athletes (shrug)

 

[Vagabond]

With all the handwringing over Jason/Camden, I think the more controversial assignments are:

Mullens over Peals

Who over whom?

 

[Dobre]

Who over whom?

The junior 3rd place finishing dance team at this year's Junior Nationals over the team which finished 2nd at this year's Junior Nationals and 5th at last years Junior Worlds.

 

[Private Citizen]

I think the Peals' last place finish at the JGPF must've convinced the USFS that it's not worth sending them back to Junior Worlds only for them to finish lower than last year. Political, yes, but I understand the rationale. Being benched may end up being better for them than starting on a downward trajectory.

Who would people have sent to Junior Worlds other than Lin-Gracey? She won two Challenger medals (including gold), and people were proclaiming her to be National Champion and a senior world medalist back in August/September . If we look at last season, she was 2nd and 4th in her JGPs -- pretty much the best combined showing in years for the US on the JGP. She was passed over for Junior Worlds last year due to her disappointing showing at Nationals.

Yes, Lin-Gracey has been uneven since September, but I can't think of another junior woman who has the content and has been any more consistent. Sherry Zhang doesn't have the content, didn't skate much better, and already went to Junior Worlds and finished eighth -- which is probably better than what she could hope for this year. Higase-Chen was lower at Nationals and 8th in her JGP. I see Lin-Gracey as having about the same floor as the other eligible women, but with a higher ceiling if she can rediscover the magic she had in the fall competitions.

 

[tangerine dream]

Who would people have sent to Junior Worlds other than Lin-Gracey?

Sarah Everhardt

 

[Private Citizen]

Sarah Everhardt

I agree with you, actually. But, as others on this thread have said, she hasn't skated Juniors all season and would do better points-wise to go 4CC. Doing both is impossible, given that she has realistic chances of being called up for Worlds. So I was eliminating Everhardt from my analysis.