The Dance Hall 11: Movin' On Up 2023-2024

[PRlady]

Your guys timing is off. Demougeot & LeMercier are winning gold in 2030.

Aw that’s sweet and loyal of you. But they and Lop/Bri will be passed by their own baby teammates sooner than that, despite being very good teams.

 

[BlueRidge]

Aw that’s sweet and loyal of you. But they and Lop/Bri will be passed by their own baby teammates sooner than that, despite being very good teams.

In all seriousness, Lady, Mouaden/Bigot will be in their early 20s in 2030. Talk about 2034 and 2038 maybe.

 

[PRlady]

In all seriousness, Lady, Mouaden/Bigot will be in their early 20s in 2030. Talk about 2034 and 2038 maybe.

Except they’re the next P/C, who didn’t have to wait their turn.

 

[BlueRidge]

Except they’re the next P/C, who didn’t have to wait their turn.

And you call my views "sweet"

I'd rather live in the moment anyway so I'm just waiting to next year's worlds when L&B and D&L-M combine so there can be three French teams in 2026, that third being Dupayage & Nabais

 

[PRlady]

And you call my views "sweet"

I'd rather live in the moment anyway so I'm just waiting to next year's worlds when L&B and D&L-M combine so there can be three French teams in 2026, that third being Dupayage & Nabais

Are you wishing away the Lithuanians and Finns? I think both French teams are better but the results yesterday don’t say so. Allison is gunning for citizenship and IAM is putting its politiks on the job.

 

[BlueRidge]

Are you wishing away the Lithuanians and Finns? I think both French teams are better but the results yesterday don’t say so. Allison is gunning for citizenship and IAM is putting its politiks on the job.

No I'm wishing away C&B, GilPo, and FB&S but I haven't done the math...

I would never wish away my Allison!

 

[Marta24]

Your guys timing is off. Demougeot & LeMercier are winning gold in 2030.

Ahem...Mrazkova/Mrazek?

And I'm curious how (if at all) Vaclavikova/Morozov will factor in 2034 and 2038.

 

[BlueRidge]

Ahem...Mrazkova/Mrazek?

oops not really thinking this through, but obviously they will be one of the favorites in 2030!!

 

[PRlady]

Ahem...Mrazkova/Mrazek?

And I'm curious how (if at all) Vaclavikova/Morozov will factor in 2034 and 2038.

I see Mrazeks as a top five team after 2026, passing their teammates conclusively. But I’m not sure they’ll ever be artistic enough for the podium. And I like them!

 

[BlueRidge]

I see Mrazeks as a top five team after 2026, passing their teammates conclusively. But I’m not sure they’ll ever be artistic enough for the podium. And I like them!

They are early in their career, and that's the point about all these young teams. As well, we don't know who will be competing all that time in the future. When did you predict that C&B would be two-time World Champions beating out Gilles & Poirier for Gold?

As for their teammates, whereever they finish in the future, no one will ever skate with as much heart as Taschlers.

 

[Marta24]

I see Mrazeks as a top five team after 2026, passing their teammates conclusively. But I’m not sure they’ll ever be artistic enough for the podium. And I like them!

It depends what the judges are going to reward in the future. Right now it's less about skating skills, power and speed. Might be changing once LaLa start winning titles.

 

[PRlady]

It depends what the judges are going to reward in the future. Right now it's less about skating skills, power and speed. Might be changing once LaLa start winning titles.

I meant to say that I also think LaLa will be world champs as soon as the current top three retire. They will pass the Brits who will medal and never win gold. They are the reason I might be premature about 2030 as BR says, they’re not old folks themselves.

 

[Karen-W]

No I'm wishing away C&B, GilPo, and FB&S but I haven't done the math...

I would never wish away my Allison!

I don't think we're losing ChoBat before 2026, but I do think we'll lose the other two this season. If FearGib were placed behind LajLag, CarPon and LopBri like they should be, that would move LopBri up to 5th and we'd just need DemLeM to finish 8th or higher. I think that's possible. They could beat ReedAmbru and TurkVers and both CZE teams again next year. CZE & FIN are solid for the two spots each needs.

ReedAmbru need to pray her LTU citizenship comes through before Worlds next year - I can't see Ramanauskaite/Kizala making the FD and securing that 2nd spot and they certainly won't be getting it at the fall Oly qualifier. Hopefully the LTU government won't understand/realize that the 2 spots ReedAmbru keep earning LTU aren't automatic for the Olympics the way they are for Euros & Worlds and they'll grant Allison her passport sooner rather than later.

 

[Wyliefan]

Leave some room for my young Germans in your predictions, will you please? I don't know how far they can go in a very crowded field, but I hope they can make their mark somehow. At the very least, I think they'll take over the #1 German spot without too much trouble.

 

[BlueRidge]

Leave some room for my young Germans in your predictions, will you please? I don't know how far they can go in a very crowded field, but I hope they can make their mark somehow. At the very least, I think they'll take over the #1 German spot without too much trouble.

I was thinking of them. I think they will be in the mix after 2026. These are the unknowns. Think back to say 2008, for the most part people didn't see D&W as the future Oly champions.

This is what makes it fun!

 

[PRlady]

I was thinking of them. I think they will be in the mix after 2026. These are the unknowns. Think back to say 2008, for the most part people didn't see D&W as the future Oly champions.

This is what makes it fun!

Ahem. I did see my wonderful Charlie and his partner as Oly champions although even then V/M stood in their way. (I sent Umbrellas of Cherbourg to DH way back when to start converting him to ice dance.)

 

[Trillian]

Looks like I'm going to be lonely over here on the Lim & Quan train for a while.

 

[BlueRidge]

Ahem. I did see my wonderful Charlie and his partner as Oly champions although even then V/M stood in their way. (I sent Umbrellas of Cherbourg to DH way back when to start converting him to ice dance.)

You wished they would be and they fulfilled that, and that's exactly the point. We don't know if we'll see Grimm & Savitsky or Neset & Markelov or someone else in that space by 2030 or 2034

 

[BlueRidge]

Looks like I'm going to be lonely over here on the Lim & Quan train for a while.

No you are not! there are too many to keep track of. They are going to be right in there for Oly podium in 2030 which is why some one that is a young junior team now isn't going to be. There are a number of teams that will be maturing by then and have the experience.

 

[Wyliefan]

Looks like I'm going to be lonely over here on the Lim & Quan train for a while.

Oh, I love them too. There are just too many lovable teams, darn it. Good problem to have.

 

[BlueRidge]

Oh, I love them too. There are just too many lovable teams, darn it. Good problem to have.

I just can't keep them all in my head at once.

Lim & Quan are sensational now, what they will be in the next Oly cycle will be

I loved their FD yesterday. I also love love loved Grimm & Savitsky's RD which I somehow did not see until Jr Worlds. And I adore N&M. I mean wahoo!

 

[litenkyckling]

Except they’re the next P/C, who didn’t have to wait their turn.

to be fair, P/C didn't have to wait their turn because their breakout season happened when the French #1 retired, V/M, D/W didn't compete, I/K fell apart etc - like a lot of things had to happen for their rise to happen. It's still a wait your turn sport, their blockades just disappeared at the best possible time for them.

 

[Trillian]

I love Grimm & Savitskiy too - I have this fear they're always going to be scored lower than they should, but I can't think of many junior teams who've had such a distinctive sense of style.

 

[Wyliefan]

Don't be too quick to write off Piper and Paul. If this interview can be believed, and they weren't just swept away by the emotion of the moment, winning silver may have just made them hungrier for gold.

Worlds 2024: 'We gave everything that we could'

With a spectacular free dance that won the day, Canada's Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier took another step toward the top of the podium with a silver medal finish in Montreal.

rwbrodiewrites.substack.com

“I think just winning the free showed us that we’re capable of being on top of the podium at the World Championships. Right now it’s hard to really digest what’s next and how to get to that next step,” the 32-year-old Gilles said when asked if Saturday’s result might be enough to extend their careers. “I think right now we’re just going to enjoy the show skating and keep everybody on their toes because that’s what we love to do. Keep everybody guessing.”

Her partner sounded enthused about chasing that top step on the podium.

“It’s really exciting. It’s a testament to the effort and the time that we put in to try to get to this level of competition,” Poirier, 32, said of winning the free dance. “We’re always seeking to better ourselves. Kind of taking these last few little steps to be the best in the world are so difficult and it’s so hard to know where to go. But these small victories are so rewarding still and they’re teaching us that we’re on the right track and that our efforts are leading us to where we want to be and that’s really exciting.”

 

[s_parks]

I'm really impressed with the rate Mrazkovi are improving, both being new to ice dance when they started competing together ~2 seasons ago. Of course they have a lot of room for improvement as a young team but they've already come a long ways from the implosions they almost regularly used to have, even just last season at the jgpf, for instance.

 

[kwanfan1818]

ReedAmbru need to pray her LTU citizenship comes through before Worlds next year - I can't see Ramanauskaite/Kizala making the FD and securing that 2nd spot and they certainly won't be getting it at the fall Oly qualifier. Hopefully the LTU government won't understand/realize that the 2 spots ReedAmbru keep earning LTU aren't automatic for the Olympics the way they are for Euros & Worlds and they'll grant Allison her passport sooner rather than later.

I think I’m missing something: do you mean that ReedAmbru will stop skating and won’t be at 2025 Worlds, if she doesn’t get citizenship by 2025 Worlds?

At this this point you’re right that it’s unlikely for R/K to make the 2025 FD or capture a spot at the qualifier, which would mean 0 spots if R/A don’t skate and one guaranteed if they do. If R/A skip Boston, theycould/would skate at the Olympic qualifier. Unless they retire, she’d need citizenship between the earlier of the entry deadline and when the LTU Federation chooses the team. They wouldn’t give her citizenship and then appoint R/K to the single spot.

 

[irenemulindwairen]

That sounds a bit better than that dance party nonsense.

 

[Colonel Green]

Looking ahead to next season, it will be interesting to see how the Euros bronze race plays out, with no "home" team from Croatia jockeying. Lopareva & Brissaud narrowly edged out Reed & Ambrulevicius in the free dance at Worlds, maybe it's their time now.

This is all assuming the Russians aren't back by then, of course, as that would more significantly scramble the field.

 

[tony]

Looking ahead to next season, it will be interesting to see how the Euros bronze race plays out, with no "home" team from Croatia jockeying. Lopareva & Brissaud narrowly edged out Reed & Ambrulevicius in the free dance at Worlds, maybe it's their time now.

This is all assuming the Russians aren't back by then, of course, as that would more significantly scramble the field.

There would only be one team in the event that happens, anyways. But sure doesn't seem likely.

 

[Karen-W]

I think I’m missing something: do you mean that ReedAmbru will stop skating and won’t be at 2025 Worlds, if she doesn’t get citizenship by 2025 Worlds?

At this this point you’re right that it’s unlikely for R/K to make the 2025 FD or capture a spot at the qualifier, which would mean 0 spots if R/A don’t skate and one guaranteed if they do. If R/A skip Boston, theycould/would skate at the Olympic qualifier. Unless they retire, she’d need citizenship between the earlier of the entry deadline and when the LTU Federation chooses the team. They wouldn’t give her citizenship and then appoint R/K to the single spot.

No, what I'm saying is that ReedAmbru are the only reason LTU has ANY spots but especially 2. They earned and secured that 2022 spot and then the LTU government wouldn't give her a passport which gave RamKiz the Olympic spot that they never would or could have earned on their own.

The Olympic entry allocation procedure is the same for 2026 as it was for 2022 which means that even if ReedAmbru and RamKiz's combined placements earn them two spots at Worlds it doesn't necessarily mean they will earn two for the Olympics. If RamKiz don't make the FD in Boston (highly unlikely) then all they will have is the opportunity to go to the Olympic qualifying competition in the fall to try for one of the open spots. And if they don't finish in the top 5 there or whatever the necessary placement is to secure the 2nd spot then LTU is back to just 1 spot for the Olympics.

If that's the way it plays out, do I think the LTU government would be any less obstinate in refusing to give Allison her passport so a fully-homegrown LTU team goes to the Olympics instead? Well, they did it once. So, yes, ReedAmbru and their federation probably need to be working OT to convince the LTU government to make an exception to their super-strict citizenship laws and grant Allison her citizenship before we get to Oct 2025 by making it seem like 2 spots for LTU in ice dance is a done deal even when, in reality, it isn't anything more than a pipe dream.