USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

[Carolla5501]

The few Of you who really think the data is what they’re going to use- fantasyland is in Orlando and nationals are in Nashville.



US figure skating is going to send who they want to send. And sadly for some of you, they won’t be asking your opinion.

But on a positive note it will give you a lot to scream and cry about for the next four years

 

[misskarne]

I've been thinking about the selection for the men's team and my current feeling is if at Nationals Nathan and Vincent in some order or another take gold and silver, a younger skater takes bronze and Jason takes pewter (or less), then the younger guy should be named to the team. If this takes some renegotiation on the part of the selection committee, casually overlooking rules they claimed to have set up, they should do it.

Let's make sure I've got this understanding very correct.

If, somehow, Jason finishes 4th at Nationals - still on the podium - and another skater, presumably younger which is not a difficult bar to clear as Jason will be one of the older skaters there - finishes third, you believe Jason is the one that should be thrown on the trash heap.

Jason, who over the past four years has consistently racked up large scores, GP medals, a 4CC medal, top 10 Worlds finishes. Jason, who has shown constant improvements to both his technical skating (including a total revamp of his basic jump technique, despite being hampered by at least two injuries over that period including a major concussion) and his artistic skating (including the judges showing that they are prepared to rank him higher than the reigning Olympic champion if given the opportunity). Jason, who has consistently been on the US Nationals podium and has unquestionably been the US number two over the past four years - he is the one to be thrown aside like out-of-date milk...

...for someone who, at best, will have pulled two good skates out of their arse at Nationals after showing nothing even remotely close to one of Jason's "bad" seasons over the last quad, let alone his good ones, and can't even come within a bull's roar of his international scores.

Yeah. That makes sense.

Who is this magical skater that you'd throw Jason off the team for, hmm? Which US man is such a bastion of consistency that you think he deserves to be in this conversation instead of Jason?

You are basically advocating the reverse Miner. Except unlike 2018, now we have three very clear, very obvious picks. It is obvious who the team should be and will be barring injury or illness (and I just went to find a piece of wood to touch).

I have always advocated for body of work, but this year in the US men it is absolutely imperative it is followed. It would be nothing short of a disgrace for one of the wildly inconsistent headcases to pull two good skates out of their arse and be put on the team instead of Jason purely because they are younger than him.

 

[skatingguy]

Let's make sure I've got this understanding very correct.

If, somehow, Jason finishes 4th at Nationals - still on the podium - and another skater, presumably younger which is not a difficult bar to clear as Jason will be one of the older skaters there - finishes third, you believe Jason is the one that should be thrown on the trash heap.

Jason, who over the past four years has consistently racked up large scores, GP medals, a 4CC medal, top 10 Worlds finishes. Jason, who has shown constant improvements to both his technical skating (including a total revamp of his basic jump technique, despite being hampered by at least two injuries over that period including a major concussion) and his artistic skating (including the judges showing that they are prepared to rank him higher than the reigning Olympic champion if given the opportunity). Jason, who has consistently been on the US Nationals podium and has unquestionably been the US number two over the past four years - he is the one to be thrown aside like out-of-date milk...

...for someone who, at best, will have pulled two good skates out of their arse at Nationals after showing nothing even remotely close to one of Jason's "bad" seasons over the last quad, let alone his good ones, and can't even come within a bull's roar of his international scores.

Yeah. That makes sense.

Who is this magical skater that you'd throw Jason off the team for, hmm? Which US man is such a bastion of consistency that you think he deserves to be in this conversation instead of Jason?

You are basically advocating the reverse Miner. Except unlike 2018, now we have three very clear, very obvious picks. It is obvious who the team should be and will be barring injury or illness (and I just went to find a piece of wood to touch).

I have always advocated for body of work, but this year in the US men it is absolutely imperative it is followed. It would be nothing short of a disgrace for one of the wildly inconsistent headcases to pull two good skates out of their arse and be put on the team instead of Jason purely because they are younger than him.

You take this way too personally.

 

[misskarne]

You take this way too personally.

Of course, but surely you must admit how insane it is that some people have become so desperate not to put Jason on the team for literally no good reason.

 

[MacMadame]

Of course, but surely you must admit how insane it is that some people have become so desperate not to put Jason on the team for literally no good reason.

No one is desperate. Some people have fun spitballing and playing "what if." That is all that is going on here.

You don't have to agree with their logic. But it makes more sense to either play along and explain why their logic is flawed. Or not play at all if this sort of spitballing isn't your thing. But taking it personally and assigning motives to people you don't even know isn't fun for anyone.

Let's put it this way, some of the "what ifs" for dance have been a lot more out there than having one skater who needs to go very clean to medal not going very clean. I don't see you accusing anyone of being desperate over that though.

 

[Flowerz]

No one is desperate. Some people have fun spitballing and playing "what if." That is all that is going on here.

Their "what ifs" are starting to have less and less to do with reality. We're talking about THE Jason Brown and people expect the USFSF to go with skaters who internationally score, what, maybe 20 points less on a good day than Jason on a bad day? Hilarious and almost lacking in respect for a skater who has dominated, alongside Chen and Zhou, the US men's skating for the last almost four years or more.

 

[antmanb]

3 US men have qualified for the GPF. When has that ever happened before in an Olympic season?

Why would the USFSA chose anyone other than three men who have had to consistently perform across the GP to qualify to the GPF?

 

[skatingguy]

3 US men have qualified for the GPF. When has that ever happened before in an Olympic season?

2009 - Lysacek, Weir, Abbott

 

[missing]

An interesting parallel is with ice dance. It's pretty obvious that Hubbell/Donahue and Chock and Bates will be sent to the Olympics, and might well share the team competition, leaving the US third team to be there without a specific role, since that third team would be very unlikely to medal.

Do you send Hawayak/Baker as a reward for years of yeoman service, thus giving them the Olympic experience they haven't had and most likely will never have a chance at again? Or do you send Green/Parsons who also have no Olympic experience and minimal chance at medaling at 2022 but who might benefit from having done a first Olympics when 2026 rolls around?

 

[Karen-W]

3 US men have qualified for the GPF. When has that ever happened before in an Olympic season?

Why would the USFSA chose anyone other than three men who have had to consistently perform across the GP to qualify to the GPF?

2009 - Lysacek, Weir, Abbott

2017 - Chen, Rippon, Brown

Look, the selection criteria make it clear that the USFS is looking at the scoring trends for skaters since Worlds 2021. In that regard, nothing else any skater has done during the last quad or two quads matters. While at this point I don't think it is likely that Brown will be passed over by another skater for the 3rd spot on the Olympic team, there is still a possibility it could happen. Malinin and Ma both still have one competition left prior to Nationals to raise their scores and jump into Group 3 on that standard alone; and even if they don't they're still in Group 4 so if they manage to finish in the Top 3 at Nats, ahead of Jason, there is a reasonable argument to be made to place them on the team. You can't make that argument for any other man, not even Camden who, thanks to his Rostelecom score today, is the only other US man outside of Nathan, Vincent, Jason, Ilia & Jimmy to score above the Worlds Top 15 mark of 225.55. What the International Scores criteria does is place a skater in a priority group, same as Nationals placement. What the Selection Committee decides, once all of the skaters are sorted into those categories... Who knows, but arguing that everything Jason has done, or what his scoring level over the entirety of the last quad, is irrelevant to the actual criteria as laid out by USFS. That's where the passionate arguments for why Jason just cannot be left off the team lose me. Frankly, I feel the same about similar arguments in support of Karen. So what if she managed 4th place at Worlds in 2017 & 2021? None of that matters (well, her 4th at 2021 Worlds matters, as much as Jason's 7th at 2021 Worlds matters) as much as what she and the other skaters do this season and at Nationals. And Nationals SHOULD be a factor, which is why it's part of the criteria and, can qualify a skater into Group 3 or Group 4 alone.

 

[Carolla5501]

Oh the send for experience argument.

What we should do is not an skater skating well now but send someone who will be skating in 4 years because we have a crystal ball and can tell who that’s going to be


If US figure skating starts sending people for the future they have joined some of you in fantasyland. Because the truth is a skater could walk away tomorrow for any number of reasons money, injury, Health, tired of fans saying to seem to think they know more about how the skater should be train, dress, act etc than they do


Honestly this plan of sending skaters for the future could easily backfire. A skater whose whole goal was to go to the Olympics might decide “done that I’m done I’m going to go live a normal life.”

 

[skatingguy]

An interesting parallel is with ice dance. It's pretty obvious that Hubbell/Donahue and Chock and Bates will be sent to the Olympics, and might well share the team competition, leaving the US third team to be there without a specific role, since that third team would be very unlikely to medal.

Do you send Hawayak/Baker as a reward for years of yeoman service, thus giving them the Olympic experience they haven't had and most likely will never have a chance at again? Or do you send Green/Parsons who also have no Olympic experience and minimal chance at medaling at 2022 but who might benefit from having done a first Olympics when 2026 rolls around?

I don't think the USFS does this kind of strategic thinking.

 

[MacMadame]

Why would the USFSA chose anyone other than three men who have had to consistently perform across the GP to qualify to the GPF?

Because one of them bombs so badly at Nats that it makes USFS question the Fall results. It's happened before because ice is slippery.

I still think what-if-ing Sin/Kat to score below two NA teams in the TE is more WTF than thinking that Jason could have an off day and doesn't hit the Quad and messes up some of the triples. (Or Vincent for that matter.) Because that has actually happened before. SinKat will not score below both Piper & Paul and whichever US team skates in the Dance part of the TE even with a fall.

 

[Flowerz]

I still think what-if-ing Sin/Kat to score below two NA teams in the TE is more WTF than thinking that Jason could have an off day and doesn't hit the Quad and messes up some of the triples. (Or Vincent for that matter.)

Following the same logic,
(or Nathan for that matter)
Nathan has scored 269 at Skate America (his homeland GP where supposedly he'd get inflated scores only for being American), a score a CLEAN Jason could easily beat nationally and internationally. (and a clean Vincent and a squeaky clean Ilia even)
Still an unlikely scenario at Nationals, but the possibility is there...

 

[Trillian]

This is a lot of conversation around the one discipline with a pretty unambiguous set of scores. Jason hasn’t just outscored the closest challengers once or twice, he’s done it consistently. There aren’t a lot of men in the world who can reliably score 260ish or higher every time out. Maybe something exciting will happen for Malinin or Ma in the last round of internationals. Otherwise, if Jason is 4th or 5th at nationals, the USFS isn’t going to push him aside in favor of a skater who manages to beat him one time domestically. That’s the entire point of including events other than nationals in the selection criteria. If he’s lower than 5th, sure, but that would be pretty uncharacteristic based on everything else he’s done for the last two years.

Not saying there couldn’t be a surprise, but at this point, every other discipline in U.S. skating has a lot more realistic, interesting potential what-ifs.

 

[Carolla5501]

I don't think the USFS does this kind of strategic thinking.

Because it’s not strategic thinking. It’s fan think. How did we know that a team is going to stick it out for four years and be ready for the Olympics?

Sport does not work this way. You don’t put the second string team on the field because we’re planning for the future you go with the best team you can put on the field that day.

 

[MacMadame]

Otherwise, if Jason is 4th or 5th at nationals, the USFS isn’t going to push him aside in favor of a skater who manages to beat him one time domestically.

4th definitely. 5th, I think it would depend. I consider that putting him on the bubble.

Now watch, Nathan will come in 4th and Jason will win!

 

[missing]

Oh the send for experience argument.

What we should do is not an skater skating well now but send someone who will be skating in 4 years because we have a crystal ball and can tell who that’s going to be


If US figure skating starts sending people for the future they have joined some is you in fantasyland. Because the truth is a skater could walk away tomorrow for any number of reasons money, injury, Health, tired of fans saying to seem to think they know more about how the skater should be train, dress, act address than they do

Interestingly enough, it's not a fantasyland, and Olympic success for American skaters frequently follows a pattern of repetition.

I'm going to leave US pairs out of this, because they simply haven't had enough success of late to discuss.

In US men's, 4 out of the 5 most recent US Olympic medalists have done so in their second Olympics. Only Tim Goebel medaled at his first. A not unreasonable hope is that either Nathan or Vincent (both at their second Olympics) will medal.

In US dance, Belbin and Agosto had an abbreviated career, medaling at their one Olympics. Davis and White went from silver to gold at their two Olympics, and the Shibutanis went from not medaling to medaling in their two Olympic career. For Hubbell/Donahue and Chock and Bates, this will most likely be a second Olympics.

Even women, who I tend to think of as one and done, have a more complex history than that. While Tara Lipinski and Sarah Hughes competed at one Olympics, Sasha Cohen, the most recent US woman to medal in an individual event, did so at her second. Michelle Kwan went from outside looking in (a kind of semi-Olympic experience for her) to silver to bronze to withdrawal.

So out of the 12 US skaters/teams who medaled in individual events, 7 either medaled or improved their medal ranking at their second Olympics, while 5 (Lipiniski, Hughes, Goebel and Belbin/Agosto with only 1 Olympics, and Kwan) did not.

If I can figure this out with the massive aid of Wikipedia, I think the USFS Olympic committee can also.

 

[Karen-W]

4th definitely. 5th, I think it would depend. I consider that putting him on the bubble.

Now watch, Nathan will come in 4th and Jason will win!

At this point, unless Ilia or Jimmy beats Jason by a margin of 8+ points between 3rd & 4th, I'd say Jason will probably be selected for the Olympic team; but if Jason finishes 5th, even if the margin is tighter, I'm not sure how the USFS justifies putting him on the team over a top 3 placement at Nats.

In US dance, Belbin and Agosto had an abbreviated career, medaling at their one Olympics. Davis and White went from silver to gold at their two Olympics, and the Shibutanis went from not medaling to medaling in their two Olympic career. For Hubbell/Donahue and Chock and Bates, this will most likely be a second Olympics.

Just going to point out that BelGosto medaled at their first Olympics and finished 4th at their 2nd (2010). And this will be the 3rd Olympics for ChoBat.

 

[missing]

At this point, unless Ilia or Jimmy beats Jason by a margin of 8+ points between 3rd & 4th, I'd say Jason will probably be selected for the Olympic team; but if Jason finishes 5th, even if the margin is tighter, I'm not sure how the USFS justifies putting him on the team over a top 3 placement at Nats.

Just going to point out that BelGosto medaled at their first Olympics and finished 4th at their 2nd (2010). And this will be the 3rd Olympics for ChoBat.

Thank you. I kept thinking I was missing a Belbin/Agosto Olympics but I was looking in the wrong direction.

 

[Trillian]

At this point, unless Ilia or Jimmy beats Jason by a margin of 8+ points between 3rd & 4th, I'd say Jason will probably be selected for the Olympic team; but if Jason finishes 5th, even if the margin is tighter, I'm not sure how the USFS justifies putting him on the team over a top 3 placement at Nats.

Fair enough, because he’d probably have to bomb pretty hard to place 5th. But odds are against that. When it comes down to it, we have two skaters at the top with a 30+ point range of scores, then Jason (mostly) clearly behind them, then two other skaters with a 30+ point range clearly behind him. Seems like everyone is talking about Jason as the great unknown, but he’s the one posting virtually identical scores in every event. Jason’s gonna Jason, and the chances that any of the other guys will do something different than they usually do relative to Jason are getting pretty slim. But we’ll see what happens in a few weeks; those last few internationals will very much be part of the picture going into nationals, too.

 

[MacMadame]

At this point, unless Ilia or Jimmy beats Jason by a margin of 8+ points between 3rd & 4th, I'd say Jason will probably be selected for the Olympic team; but if Jason finishes 5th, even if the margin is tighter, I'm not sure how the USFS justifies putting him on the team over a top 3 placement at Nats.

They justified not sending Miner after he came in 2nd.

I think Jason would really have to implode and those other guys who looked so promising at the beginning of the season are going to have to really step it up and not just at Nationals but between now and then.

 

[Flowerz]

Jason has the international scores, if he does not do well one time, USFSF will have all the other scores and results to justify sending him to the Olympics. Plenty of reason. Even if another skater reaches group 3, Jason will still be the highest in that particular group based on consistency and several good scores and results starting with Worlds 2021.
This is not 2017-2018, it's 2021-2022, Jason's consistency will not all of a sudden evaporate and he can manage decent scores with more than one mistake.
It's okay to take into account Jason failing at Nationals, but when you take into account the possibility of Nathan having a skate like that at Skate America and probably mathematically being over scored (very unlikely), all of a sudden it's all giggles.

 

[VGThuy]

I think Jason will have to implode epically and Malinin will have to high sky high TES in the JGPF and knock it out of the park at Nationals again with an even highest TES to have a chance. But that can go to Vincent too. He can also implode at both the GPF and Nationals. If Zhou does and Malinin out scores his TES by some way, then the jury is out there. That said, Malinin seems subject to calls too.

 

[Karen-W]

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds M – 289.18 W – 217.20 P – 217.63 D – 214.35	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds M – 272.04 W – 208.44 P – 201.18 D – 208.77 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds M – 245.99 W – 193.44 P – 184.41 D – 188.45 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds M – 225.55 W – 178.10 P – 157.29 D – 178.18 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Well, we have one more weekend of fall international competition ahead of us before Nationals!

Biggest change this week is that Mariah Bell has leapt into Group 3 with her spectacular 210.35 at Rostelecom! If she's able to match that mark in 2 weeks at Golden Spin then she'll join Alysa in Group 2! We'll also get to see how Lindsay does in the JGPF. If she can match her JGP Ljubljana score she will also move into Group 3. Gabriella Izzo and Hanna Harrell also have one last opportunity to move themselves into Group 4.

The same can be said for Ilia Malinin on the Men's side - and congratulations to Jason Brown on making the GPF! Interesting to note that all five of the men currently qualified by International Scores criteria have assignments in two weeks!

Hawayek/Baker should also be able to move themselves into Group 3 at Golden Spin with a few more weeks training - they almost did it this week with a solid season debut that saw their score just a smidge lower than Worlds Top 10.

No changes to Pairs at this time and not much of an expectation for anything to change at Golden Spin.

Men
Group 1 -
- Nathan Chen (320.88 Worlds 2021; 269.37 SkAm; 307.18 SCI; GPF)
Group 2 -
- Vincent Zhou (70.51 Worlds 2021; 288.26 Cranberry; 284.23 CS Nebelhorn; 295.56 SkAm; 260.69 NHK; CS Warsaw; GPF)
Group 3 -
- Jason Brown (262.17 Worlds 2021; 262.52 CS Finlandia; 259.55 SCI; 264.20 IdF; GPF)
Group 4 -
- Jimmy Ma (230.59 Cranberry; 233.58 US Classic; 228.12 SkAm; 195.09 CS Warsaw; CS Golden Spin)
- Ilia Malinin (214.64 JGP Courchevel 1; 245.35 JGP Austria; 222.55 CS Austria; JGPF)

Others with International Assignments
Max Naumov (223.15 Cranberry; 207.39 US Classic; CS Finlandia; Rostelecom; CS Golden Spin)
Eric Sjoberg (221.12 US Classic; 189.38 CS Warsaw; CS Golden Spin)
Yaroslav Paniot (210.84 Cranberry; CS Lombardia; SkAm)
Tomoki Hiwatashi (205.17 Cranberry; 213.11 CS Lombardia; 221.77 SCI; 217.08 NHK)
Camden Pulkinen (179.50 Cranberry; 208.99 US Classic; 204.24 CS Finlandia; 193.18 NHK; 237.97 Rostelecom)
Dinh Tran (176.72 US Classic)

Women
Group 2 -
- Alysa Liu (205.74 Cranberry; 219.24 CS Lombardia; 207.40 CS Nebelhorn; 206.53 SCI; 202.90 NHK)
Group 3 -
- Mariah Bell (179.42 Cranberry; 190.79 IdF; 210.35 Rostelecom; CS Golden Spin)
- Karen Chen (208.63 Worlds 2021; 173.00 CS ACI; 202.49 CS Finlandia; 183.41 SCI; 194.00 IdF)
Group 4 -
- Amber Glenn (Cranberry; 183.46 CS Finlandia; 201.02 SkAm; 175.83 NHK)
- Bradie Tennell* (197.81 Worlds 2021; US Classic; SkAm; GP Italia; CS Austria; CS Warsaw; CS Golden Spin)
- Lindsay Thorngren (181.45 JGP Courchevel 1; 193.77 JGP Ljubljana; 184.40 CS Warsaw; JGPF)

Others with International Assignments
Gabriella Izzo (Cranberry; 182.76 US Classic; 155.78 CS Warsaw; CS Golden Spin)
Starr Andrews (155.25 CS ACI; 177.63 SkAm; 157.35 CS Austria; IdF)
Audrey Shin (174.73 Cranberry; 172.46 CS Lombardia; 160.78 SkAm; 169.99 CS Austria)
Sierra Venetta (159.72 Cranberry; 177.40 US Classic)
Hanna Harrell* (CS Golden Spin)

Pairs
Group 2 -
- Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier (192.10 Worlds 2021; 205.87 Cranberry; 212.55 John Nicks; 202.97 SkAm; 201.69 IdF; CS Golden Spin)
Group 3 -
- Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc (185.31 Worlds 2021; Cranberry; 170.64 CS ACI; 193.00 CS Finlandia; 189.90 SCI; 202.79 NHK)
- Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson (195.28 Cranberry; 196.69 John Nicks; 191.89 CS Finlandia; 197.42 SkAm; 196.85 CS Warsaw; CS Golden Spin)
- Audrey Lu/Misha Mitrofanov (158.81 Cranberry; 195.20 John Nicks; 190.03 NHK; 186.16 Rostelecom; CS Golden Spin)
Group 4 -
- Emily Chan/Spencer Howe (182.44 Cranberry; 170.08 John Nicks; 163.39 CS Warsaw)
- Chelsea Liu/Danny O'Shea (165.20 Cranberry; 177.45 John Nicks; 175.40 SkAm; CS Warsaw)
- Katie McBeath/Nathan Bartholomay (157.74 Cranberry; 161.69 John Nicks; 168.61 CS ACI)
- Anastasiia Smirnova/Danylo Siianytsia (145.09 Cranberry; 153.63 JGP Poland; 156.40 JGP Austria)

Others with International Assignments
Kate Finster/Matej Silecky (130.47 John Nicks)

Dance
Group 2 -
- Madison Chock/Evan Bates (212.69 Worlds 2021; 208.31 CS Finlandia; 208.23 SkAm; 210.78 NHK; GPF)
- Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue (214.71 Worlds 2021; 207.30 US Classic; 209.54 SkAm; 207.90 GP Italia; GPF)
Group 4 -
- Caroline Green/Michael Parsons (174.98 LPIDI; 188.43 CS ACI; 186.51 SCI; 178.26 GP Italia; 187.84 CS Warsaw)
- Kaitlyn Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker* (188.51 Worlds 2021; US Classic; NHK; 187.62 Rostelecom; CS Golden Spin)

Others with International Assignments
Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko (172.78 CS Lombardia; 178.27 CS Finlandia; 168.76 SCI; 175.91IDF)
Eva Pate/Logan Bye (159.87 LPIDI; 171.70 US Classic; 171.00 CS Warsaw)
Emily Bratti/Ian Somerville (166.83 CS Austria; CS Golden Spin)
Molly Cesanek/Yehor Yehorov (166.12 LPIDI; 151.76 CS Lombardia; 156.97 SkAm; CS Golden Spin)
Katarina Wolfkostin/Jeffrey Chen (165.01 JGP Courchevel 1; 163.25 JGP Ljubljana; 164.33 CS Austria)
Lorraine McNamara/Anton Spiridonov (155.12 LPIDI; 161.82 US Classic; 159.03 CS Austria)

* = yet to make 2021-22 senior debut
Green = Upcoming International Assignment
Purple = Withdrawn International Assignment
Red = Does not have US passport
Italic = Junior International Score
Removed skaters who 1) Lack the TES minimums or 2) Did not qualify for Nationals

 

[kwanfan1818]

I didn't realize Hawayek/Baker had the same international and national success as Jason Brown. Like the number of times they were national champions, were higher than being US#3, the number of GP medals they've earned in International fields, the number of 4C's medals they've earned in a non-Olympic year, their highest finishes at Worlds, the differential between their international PB's the next-in-lines, the number of times their results have been counted to earn three spots at the next Worlds/Olympics, and the number of GPF appearances.

Yeah, the same thing.

 

[Karen-W]

They justified not sending Miner after he came in 2nd.

I think Jason would really have to implode and those other guys who looked so promising at the beginning of the season are going to have to really step it up and not just at Nationals but between now and then.

Just gonna throw this out there again. Look at 2018 through this year's criteria and explain to me how Ross should have been sent over Adam... Adam had it over Ross in every way and Ross had underperformed all season long. Your analogy would work if someone like, say, Tomoki or Camden came in and skated lights out at Nats to finish top 3 ahead of Jason. It can't be applied to the likes of Jimmy or Ilia, who have both qualified into Group 4 based on their International Scores alone. We'd probably have a better idea of where the Selection Committee will lean this year had Krasnozhon finished 2nd with an amazing skate.

Exactly! Just for grins & giggles, I put the 2017-18 results into this year's Selection format. It's really eye-opening.

For Men - it was a mixed bag - first off - all of the guys were bunched into Group 3 that year - Nathan hadn't come close to breaking the Worlds 2017 Top 3 Men's score and wasn't consistently scoring equal to the 2017 Worlds Top 5 during the fall. The ONLY reason Ross qualified into Group 3 was because of his 2nd place at Nats, whereas Adam, Jason & Max were there because of their Int'l Scores.

So, the Selection Committee basically went down the list of Nats finishers and selected Nathan & Vincent who were there by virtue of both their Int'l Scores AND placing Top 3 at Nats. Then, it came down to Adam & Ross - and Adam would have been G4 just on Nats results alone but Ross wouldn't have made it into Group 4 on his Int'l Scores alone. Looking at it in those terms, it really was a no-brainer to select Adam over Ross.

And when it came to the Alternates - Grant Hochstein was in Group 4 by virtue of his 5th place finish and the Selection Committee gave him a pass and put Jason in as Alternate 1 by virtue of his Int'l Scores (and making the GPF I'm sure factored into the committee's thought process). Then, and only then, did Ross get chosen as 2nd alternate, and I suspect had Max not bombed so badly to finish 9th but instead finished a close 7th to Jason, he would have been named 2nd alternate ahead of Ross, but instead, by virtue of being in Group 3 due to his Int'l Scores, he was given the 3rd alternate spot.

Men
Group 2
O1 Nathan Chen (307.46 017 4CCs; 290.72 2017 Worlds; 275.04 CS US Classic; 293.79 GP Rostelecom; 275.88 GP SkAm; 286.51 GPF) Int Scores G3 & 1st US Nats

Group 3
O3 Adam Rippon (249.88 CS Finlandia; 261.99 GP NHK; 266.45 GP SkAm; 254.33 GPF) Int Scores G3 & 4th US Nats
A1 Jason Brown (245.85 2017 4CCs; 269.57 2017 Worlds; 259.88 CS Lombardia; 261.14 GP SCI; 245.95 GP NHK; 253.81 GPF) Int Scores G3 & 6th US Nats
A3 Max Aaron (261.56 CS US Classic; 259.69 GP CoC; 237.20 GP IdF) Int Scores G3 & 9th US Nats
O2 Vincent Zhou (258.11 2017 Jr Worlds; 250.01 CS Finlandia; 256.66 GP CoC; 222.21 GP IdF) Int Scores G3 & 3rd US Nats
A2 Ross Miner (219.96 CS ACI; 219.62 GP SkAm) Int Scores NG & 2nd US Nats

Group 4
Alexei Krasnozhon (211.47 2017 Jr Worlds; 222.39 CS Tallinn; 209.37 JGP Australia; 225.48 JGP Croatia; 236.35 JGPF) Int Scores G4 & 10th US Nats
Grant Hochstein (235.72 2017 4CCs; 217.52 CS Nepela; 206.69 GP Rostelecom; 216.44 GP CoC) Int Scores NG & 5th US Nats

Other International Assignments
Alexander Johnson (226.04 CS Nebelhorn) 8th US Nats
Timothy Dolensky (214.94 CS US Classic) 7th US Nats
Andrew Torgashev (55.42 2017 Jr Worlds; CS Warsaw; 212.71 JGP Belarus; 205.56 JGP Italy; 160.49 JGPF) 13th US Nats
Sean Rabbitt (204.46 CS US Classic) 14th US Nats
Jordan Moeller (191.73 CS Lombardia) 15th US Nats

 

[clairecloutier]

In US dance, Belbin and Agosto had an abbreviated career, medaling at their one Olympics. Davis and White went from silver to gold at their two Olympics, and the Shibutanis went from not medaling to medaling in their two Olympic career. For Hubbell/Donahue and Chock and Bates, this will most likely be a second Olympics.

Sorry but there are a couple inaccuracies here. Belbin/Agosto did not have an abbreviated career. They won silver in 2006 and were fourth in 2010 (and IMO, should have been third). And won 4 World medals.

Chock/Bates already competed in the 2014 and 2018 Olympics. This will be their third Olympics (and the fourth total for Bates, who went in 2010 with a different partner).

 

[Carolla5501]

They justified not sending Miner after he came in 2nd.

I think Jason would really have to implode and those other guys who looked so promising at the beginning of the season are going to have to really step it up and not just at Nationals but between now and then.

Ross’s team totally decided to ignore the selection criteria . So he didn’t do well in anything but Nationals and said “ here I am put me on the Olympic team.”

That is not what Jason has done, that is not what Vincent has done, that is not what Nathan has done. Ross’s team got themselves in this mess by focusing only on one event.

 

[Karen-W]

Ross’s team totally decided to ignore the selection criteria . So he didn’t do well in anything but Nationals and said “ here I am put me on the Olympic team.”

That is not what Jason has done, that is not what Vincent has done, that is not what Nathan has done. Ross’s team got themselves in this mess by focusing only on one event.

I'll agree with the bolded part.

The current selection criteria makes it clear that Groups 3 and 4 are based EITHER on Nationals placement OR International Scores. You can climb into one of those groups by focusing only on your Nationals placement but the 2018 Selection Committee had 5 men for 2 spots and they went with the men who were 1) qualified into Group 3 on both counts (Zhou), 2) qualified into Group 3 first by International Scores and Group 4 by Nationals (Rippon), 3) qualified into Group 3 by International Scores (Brown, Aaron), 4) qualified into Group 3 by Nationals (Miner). And, I firmly believe had Max not completely bombed at Nats, he would have been Alternate #2 instead of Miner. As it was, Max's Nats results was really, really bad, so the Selection Committee put Miner in the Alternate #2 position.

I'm curious what the Selection Committee will do if they have 1) one skater/team who qualifies into Group 3 by Nationals results & Group 4 by International Scores, and 2) one skater/team who qualifies into Group 3 by International Scores & Group 4 by Nationals results. Right now, the potential for that happening exists in Men; and a similar scenario could occur with the Women since Liu is the only skater in Group 2 and there are 2 skaters in Group 3. And the Women are especially complicated by the presence of Levito potentially taking a spot in the Top 3 or 5 at Nats.